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ThePigSite Newsletter - 9 August 2010

ThePigSite.com
Monday 9th August 2010
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Welcome to this week's newsletter

Editorial - Wheat, Pigs and the Butterfly Effect

It may be hard to grasp but one hot summer in Russia looks likely to push pig producers into the red within months.

This could turn out to be an example of the Butterfly Effect, which is a metaphor that describes the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory. At its heart is the idea that a small difference in the initial condition of a dynamic system may produce large variations in the long-term behaviour of that system.

In the present situation, an abnormally hot and dry summer in the wheat-growing area of Russia – and indeed, across eastern Europe – is that 'small difference'.

Anticipating a domestic shortage of wheat following the drought, the Russian president imposed a ban of all wheat exports.

Under normal conditions, Russia is one of the world's leading wheat exporters, so a ban would significantly cut the amount of wheat available on world markets. (And to add to the problem, wheat stocks are low this year.)

Because wheat is likely to be in short supply worldwide, prices have been rising fast: in Paris, for example, the wheat price rose from €150 to €207 between early July and the beginning of August and prices in the US have hit near a two-year high, with Chicago Board of Trade wheat standing at $254.7 per tonne last week, some $75 higher than a month earlier.

Buoyed up by these prices for wheat, so too are the prices of other feed ingredients, including barley and soya.

And what does all this mean for the pig industry? It means higher feed prices and margins squeezed into non-existence – again.

And it's a example of the Butterfly Effect, where one hot summer can be the small change in conditions that leads to a major variation on a system – in this case, global livestock production.

And by the way, it was exactly 50 years ago that the first experiments in Chaos Theory were carried out by Edward Lorenz. He was a meteorologist.

Jackie Linden

Pig Signals Training Books

* This Week's Feature Articles

We have 5 new features this week:

How the Global Wheat Shortage May Impact the Pig Industry
Based on current price predictions, the UK pig industry will experience a return to negative returns from November this year, according to a briefing document from BPEX. Other countries are likely to be hit just as hard, either directly from the price rises in wheat, barley and soybeans or indirectly from competition for other feed ingredients.
Pigs in the Netherlands
The Dutch pig sector enjoys a good reputation according to a new report Livestock, Meat and Eggs in the Netherlands 2010 published by the Product Boards for Livestock, Meat and Eggs (PVE). Large volumes of pork are exported, as well as many Dutch piglets and clean pigs.
On-Farm Control of Salmonella: Does Vaccination Work?
Vaccinating pigs against Salmonella did not produce the desired effects in a trial carried out at the University of Guelph and reported by Wayne Du (Pork Quality Assurance Program Lead, Food Safety and Traceability Programs Branch) in the August issue of Pork News and Views from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA).
The Cause of Trichinosis and its Prevention Through Safe Food Handling Practices
Trichinosis is an infection of humans caused by roundworms in the genus Trichinella, with infection resulting entirely from food sources, typiclaly undercooked pork. Alina Balaguero and Keith R. Schneider of the University of Florida explain the causes and its prevention, before and after slaughter.
Duration of Immunity Induced by a Single Dose of Porcilis PCV at Three Weeks of Age
At IPVS 2010, U. Schmidt and F. Roerink reported their study into the duration of immunity induced by a single dose (2ml) of Porcilis PCV administered to MDA-positive pigs at three weeks of age and challenged with PCV2 virus at 25 weeks of age. They found that the immunity covered the whole fattening period.
Novartis Animal Health
* Company News

Pfizer Selects Four Interns for Team Pork
US - Pfizer Animal Health's US Pork Business Unit has named four interns who will be an integral part of their team - working with territory managers to implement diagnostic programs, manage on-farm trials and provide customer support.
National PIG'nic Week Starts on Monday
UK - A new promotional campaign to encourage consumers to choose pig meat products as part of their picnic meal is due to start on Monday, with activities continuing to the end of the month.
JSR Appoints New Agent in Malaysia
MALAYSIA - JSR, the leading international pig genetics company, has taken further steps into the important Asian market, appointing Tong Fung Enterprises SDN BHD as their new agent in Malaysia.
* Global Pig Industry News

   General

 » FMD NEWS: Botswana Reports Outbreak of FMD
 » Wheat Production Forecast Cut; Supplies Adequate
 » CME: Russian Heat-Wave May Spark Wheat Crisis

   United States

 » Weekly Outlook: Supply Concerns Drive Crop Prices
 » Market Preview: Supply, Price Projections Offered
 » CME: Seasonal Rise in Price of Pork Bellies
 » Buyers Tour Generates Optimism for Future Exports
 » Weekly Roberts Report
 » Higher Pork Production Forecast for the Year Ahead
 » Senate Approves Price Reporting Reauthorisation
 » More Animal Disease Traceability Public Meetings
JSR Genetics - Genetics you can trust
   United Kingdom

 » Minister Calls for More Honest Labelling
 » Proof That Enrichment Makes Pigs Happy
 » NADIS BPEX Commentary – July 2010
 » Next Nottingham Feed Conference in 2011
 » Work Commences on Harper Biodigester
 » Opinions on Improving Farm Regulation Wanted
 » Rising Cereal Costs a Big Talking Point
 » Forecast for Pork is Looking Good!

   Germany

 » Porcine Hokovirus Common in Wild Boar

   Russian Federation

 » Three More Outbreaks of ASF in Volgograd Region
 » Russia Identifies Nine New Outbreaks of ASF
FarrowSure Gold - Count on it
   Viet Nam

 » PRRS Found in 13 Provinces
 » USGC Vietnamese Swine Programme Yields Sales

   European Union

 » EU Pig Prices: Quotations Steady
 » Action Needed to Stop Speculation on Cereals Market

   Canada

 » Needle-Free Injection Research to Stimulate Adoption
 » Outstanding Debt Reduction Allowed
 » Canadian Dollar Influences Returns to Hog Producers
 » Federal Hog Programme Hurts PEI Pork Producers
 » Research Shows Some Sows Prefer Stalls
 » The Biggest Challenge When Preparing Pork
 » Pork Commentary: USDA Pork Cutouts Approach 90 Cents/Pound

   New Zealand

 » National Should Sort Out Pork Iindustry Concerns

   Australia

 » Coles Says SA Pig Farmers Back Welfare Change

   Philippines

 » Shortage Might Jack Pork Prices Up in December

   Brazil

 » Brazilian Pork Exports Decline
 » Brazil's Pork Exports Down in Volume, Up in Value
 » Brazilian Soy Exports Should Grow 6.3 Per Cent
Biomin - the natural way
   Cambodia

 » Cambodia Bans Imports of Neighbouring Pigs

   China

 » No Epidemics Despite Bad Weather in China
 » Prices of Pork Stoking Inflation Fears

   Thailand

 » Thailand's Pigs Now PRRS-Free
 » Govt Orders Feed Manufacturers to Drop Prices

   Netherlands

 » Animal Feed Industry 'At Risk' Says Rabobank
 » Wheat Prices Set to Remain High for a Decade

   Hong Kong

 » No Sign of A/H1N1 Virus in HK Pigs from May-July

   Japan

 » More Farmers Using Rice as Chicken, Pig Feed
Alphamune G - Shielding, Earning
That's all for this week!

Ed.
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