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Pig Journal Volume: 62
Publication date: June 2009

Research Papers

MODELLING PCV2 INFECTION WITHIN A FARROW-TO-FINISH PIG FARM
M. ANDRAUD, F. MADEC, N. ROSE , E.A. LEON and J.S. PIERRE

Abstract
A stochastic individual based model representing the population dynamics in a typical French farrow-to-finish pig farm has been developed to study the within-herd course of Porcine Circovirus type 2 (PCV2) infection. The model is based on segregated rearing and a three week batch farrowing management with a 28 day lactation. An epidemic model for PCV2 infection was developed and coupled with the within-herd population dynamics model. The infectious process is based on a modified SEIR model taking into account the passive immunity intake by piglets as governed by the infectious status of their dams. Infectious parameters (within and between-pen transmission rates, time-related infectiousness, duration of passive immunity) were derived from previous experimental studies. Stochasticity was taken into account, through Monte Carlo procedures, for sow reproductive cycles, death and infectious processes. The model indicates herd structure throughout the simulations and allows focusing on specific data such as age-specific seroprevalence of infection. According to the simulations, and in accordance with real-farm data, the mean seroprevalence in sows was about 80% and more than 90% in finishing pigs leaving the finishing facilities. However, different patterns, due to the initial number of piglets with passive immunity or the number of piglets born infected, were highlighted between batches. The model was validated by comparing model outputs with actual farm situations and literature data.

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