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USDA Feed Outlook


11 April 2014

USDA Feed Outlook - 11 April 2014USDA Feed Outlook - 11 April 2014


Feed Outlook

Projected U.S. corn exports are raised 125 million bushels to 1,725 million due to the strong pace of export sales and shipments. Corn ending stocks are reduced by the same amount to 1,331 million bushels. Forecasts for corn food, seed, and industrial use and feed and residual use were unchanged. The midpoint of the corn price is raised 10 cents to $4.60 per bushel in response to export demand and tighter ending stocks. On the strength of the export pace and volume of outstanding sales, sorghum exports are boosted by 20 million bushels over last month’s forecast. Sorghum feed and residual use and food, seed, and industrial use are reduced by 15 million and 5 million bushels, respectively, as export markets attracted sorghum supplies away from biorefinery and feed use in the first half of the marketing year. Higher projected use of barley and oats lowers ending stocks for each grain. Prospective 2014 plantings for all four feed grains are reported down, but harvest intentions are up slightly for hay.

World corn trade in 2013/14 is projected up 3 percent this month to a record 116.5 million tons. Ample supplies and attractive prices are supporting import demand for corn. Global corn production is raised to a record 973.9 million tons, with increases of 2.0 million tons for Brazil and 1.0 million tons for South Africa. However, projected world consumption is increased more than production, reducing global corn ending stocks slightly.

Domestic 

Corn Stocks Indicate Slightly Higher Second Quarter Use

The USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) March 31 Grain Stocks report set March 1 corn stocks at 7.0 billion bushels, about 13 million lower than USDA’s expected level. A total of 3.9 billion bushels were reported on farms and 3.1 billion were reported in commercial storage. Onfarm storage of corn reached 55 percent of total storage, as compared with 49 percent last year, and was more in line with historical averages. March 1, 2014, stocks were 30 percent higher than March 1, 2013, stocks.

Feed Grain Supplies Forecast up in 2013/14

Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are 395.4 million tons, 109,000 tons lower than last month. Sorghum imports edged up and barley imports slid 5 million bushels. Total use of the four feed grains is projected at 359.0 million tons, 3.4 million higher than last month and 62.4 million over 2012/13. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use slid 127,000 tons due to a reduction in sorghum used for ethanol. Feed and residual is lowered, with sorghum feed use reduced more than projected oat feed use increased. Exports are raised 3.7 million tons to 49.3 million on larger forecast corn, sorghum, and barley shipments. For comparison, exports in 2012/13 were 20.7 million tons, or 42 percent of the total exports projected for the current marketing year.

Grain Feed and Residual Use Edges Down

The 2013/14 feed and residual use forecast for the four feed grains plus wheat is lowered by 1.1 million tons from last month due to lower sorghum and barley feed use. Sorghum supplies have been drawn off by export demand and ethanol production. Oats feed and residual is raised on lower-than-expected March 1 stocks. At 140.1 million tons, the four feed grains plus wheat feed use is projected 15.3 million higher than the 2012/13 total of 125.7 million. Grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) are projected at 90.75 million units for 2013/14, down 0.54 units from last month due to lower projected hog, broiler, and turkey inventories. For 2014, higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production. Feed and residual use per animal unit is 1.55 tons, slightly less than last month’s total but up from 1.37 tons in the 2012/13 marketing year, mostly due to higher corn feed and residual use spurred by a recovery in production and lower corn prices.

Feed and residual use of corn for the first half of the marketing year (September-February) totaled 3,860 million bushels, or 73 percent of the projected marketing year total of 5,300 million bushels. This compares with 3,161 million bushels during the same period in 2012/13 and the 2008/09-2012/13 average for first half feed and residual use of 3,414 million bushels, or 73 percent of the marketing year total. Higher feed and residual use for the first half of the current marketing year is a result of this year’s larger corn crop and lower prices.

Projected domestic corn use is unchanged at 11,700 million bushels, or 1,321 million over 2012/13.

Forecast Exports Raised 125 Million Bushels

Forecast exports are raised 125 million bushels this month to 1,750 million, as the pace of shipments through March exceeded the 731 million shipped during the entire 2012/13 marketing year. Competitive prices are increasing global corn demand and benefiting U.S. exports.

Corn Price Forecast Raised

The contracting outlook for ending stocks and strong export demand boost the projected 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn by 10 cents to $4.60 per bushel at the midpoint. The projected range narrowed to $4.40 to $4.80 per bushel, compared with $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel last month.

Sorghum Exports Boosted, Domestic Use Lowered

The USDA-NASS Grain Stocks report, released on March 31, indicates that 173 million bushels of grain sorghum were stored in all positions on March 1, 2013. This is an 88-percent increase relative to the drought-sapped March 1, 2013, stocks level. Disappearance from December 2013 to February 2014, as indicated by the March 1 stocks, is up 22 percent over the same period a year ago. Increased total use is primarily a reflection of strengthened demand for sorghum in export markets, in spite of a slackened first half demand from biorefineries.

Exports are raised by 20 million bushels relative to the March forecast of 160 million. If realized, this is the highest level of exports since 2005, when an estimated 194 million bushels of sorghum were exported, primarily to Mexico and Japan. Unlike in 2005, the U.S. exports to Mexico in marketing year 2013/14 have been small, and China, which until this marketing year had not imported significant quantities of U.S. sorghum, is the primary destination for U.S. exports. In recent months, China has stepped up its imports of U.S. sorghum. Between January and February of 2014, China took shipment of 0.8 million tons of sorghum. With significant outstanding sales on the books and confirmation of available stocks, sorghum exports are positioned to remain relatively strong for the balance of the marketing year and support an upward revision of the export projection.

FSI use is reduced 5 million bushels to 95 million this month and is a reflection of weaker first and second quarter demand for sorghum from ethanol producers in areas of Western Kansas and Northern Texas. Biorefinery demand is expected to accelerate in the third and fourth quarters and support the current use projections. Sorghum feed and residual is reduced 15 million bushels to 110 million due to competition for available sorghum supplies in the export marketplace.

Projected ending stocks for 2013/14 remain virtually unchanged at 19 million bushels, up slightly from 15 million last year. If realized, the 2013/14 ending stocks will be the third lowest on record, behind the 18 million forecast for the 1995/96 marketing year. An upward revision to corn farm prices this month supports a $0.10-per-bushel increase in the high and low end of the sorghum average farm price projection to $4.15 and $4.55, respectively.

Barley Use Prospects Raised Slightly

At 227 million bushels, U.S. barley use is forecast to be up slightly (2 million bushels) relative to the March forecast. The rise is attributable to an identical increase in exports and is based on the pace of shipments in the first and second quarter as indicated by U.S. Census trade data. Imports are reduced by 25 percent to 15 million bushels. Industry sources indicate that malt barley of sufficient quality and quantity is available from domestic sources. Further, transportation challenges, while recently thought to be improving, have largely inhibited the movement of Canadian barley to U.S. users. In addition, January to February trade data indicate that imports of malt barley products such as extract (up 41 percent) and roasted malt (up 35 percent) have increased relative to volumes indicated by last year’s trade data. Imports of select malt products may offset some proportion of demand for barley grain. Only imports of grain are included in barley supply and use estimates. Barley feed and residual use and FSI use categories are unchanged this month and are set at 60 million and 155 million bushels, respectively. The 5-million-bushel reduction in total supply, coupled with a 2-million-bushel increase in exports, serves to reduce ending stocks by 7 million to 83 million bushels.

On March 1, 2014, on- and off-farm barley stocks totaled 121.5 million bushels, up 4 percent over the March 1, 2013, estimate. A total of 43.8 million and 77.7 million bushels were held on farms and off farms, respectively. Proportionally more grain, about 6 percent more, was held on farms on March 1, 2014, as compared to the 2013 estimate. North Dakota and Montana both saw sizeable increases, 39 and 11 percent, respectively, in onfarm stocks, a possible result of a lack of consistent transportation, or what some industry sources are terming a “transportation crunch.”

The midpoint barley price forecast of $6.10 per bushel is unchanged this month, while the price range is narrowed by $0.05 on both ends to $6.00-$6.20 per bushel.

Oats Feed and Residual Use Increased

Total oats use in 2013/14 is forecast at 167 million bushels, an increase of 10 million from last month. The March 1 stocks imply a December 2013 to February 2014 total use of 32.6 million bushels. Stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 35.1 million bushels, down from 52.6 million in 2013. The combination of relatively low stocks volumes, previously reduced import volumes, and a 10-million-bushel expansion in the oats feed and residual use forecast as indicated by the March 1 stocks create a very tight domestic supply situation.

This month, ending stocks are projected down 10 million bushels. At 20 million bushels, this is projected to be the lowest carryout on record, 16 million bushels below the previous low in 2012/13. Market conditions continue to support historically high prices: the current range is projected at $3.65 to $3.75 per bushel with a midpoint of $3.70. These prices compare with last month’s $3.60-$3.80 per bushel price and the record-setting 2012/13 season-average price of $3.89.

Planted Area Reductions for All Feed Grains in 2014

The USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings report provides the first survey-based indication of the 2014/15 corn crop. The acreage estimates in the report are based on a sample of more than 84,000 producers contacted during the first 2 weeks of March. The results of this year’s survey indicate corn growers plan to plant 91.691 million acres, down from the estimated 95.365 million planted in 2013/14. The Northern Plains reports the greatest reduction in acreage, 1,750 thousand acres below 2013/14. The Delta States and the Southeast followed with a combined reduction of 995,000 acres. Growers in the Southern Plains intend to sow 320,000 fewer acres of corn. For individual States, Iowa and Kansas both report significant gains in intended corn plantings of 400,000 and 100,000 acres, respectively. North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota lead in corn acreage declines, falling 900,000, 550,000, and 400,000 acres, respectively. Smaller declines in dairy- and forage-producing States may indicate a higher proportion of area harvested for silage than usual, although this will also be highly dependent on summer weather and forage yields.

U.S. farmers plan to reduce seedings of sorghum by 17 percent in 2014 to 6.68 million acres. In acutely drought-affected sections of Kansas and Texas, industry sources indicate the farmers may be delaying cropping decisions to better assess soil moisture levels. Currently, farmers in Texas and Kansas are reported to reduce their planting to 77 and 87 percent of the 2013/14 total, respectively. In some parts of Texas, 2013/14 acres may return to cotton cultivation. In areas where a dry land corn crop was previously planted and struggled, sorghum cultivation may become a more favorable alternative to wheat.

Barley planted acreage is expected to retract in 2014, down 315,000 acres to 3.17 million. If realized, this will be the third-lowest barley planted area though just slightly below the 5-year average of 3.22 million planted acres. Maltsters are noted to have reduced the numbers of contracted acres. Of note is a 14-percent decline in acreage in North Dakota acres, a 9-percent decline in Montana, a 33-percent decline in Washington, and a record low in Michigan. Modest expansion of intended sowings in Idaho (up 5 percent), California (up 6 percent), and Minnesota (up 11 percent) are not enough to offset aggregated reductions in planting projections.

Acres seeded to oats in 2014 are expected to be down 7 percent to 2.79 million acres. A second year of historically high prices notwithstanding, farmers in several major oats-producing States plan to reduce plantings. Iowa farmers intend to reduce plantings to just 59 percent of the 2013 sowings; in Minnesota, an 8-percent retraction is expected; North and South Dakota plantings are projected at 93 and 98 percent of 2013 levels. USDA-NASS reports record low acreage is expected in California, Georgia, Maine, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wyoming.

Hay producers intend to harvest 58.3 million acres in 2014, a very slight increase of 10,000 acres over the area harvested in 2013. Acreage in the northern and central Great Plains (Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas) and the western Great Lakes (Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan) region is expected to experience slight-to-moderate declines. Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas are projected to harvest record-high hay acres. Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, and New Hampshire intend to harvest record-low hay acres. Soil moisture and weather conditions will affect final harvested acreage figures as producers adapt plantings, cuttings, and harvest to changing production circumstances.

International

U.S. Corn Export Prospects Supported By Huge Outstanding Sales

U.S. corn exports for trade year 2013/14 are projected up 3.0 million tons to 45.0 million (the September-August marketing year is raised 125 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels). Export shipments have increased in recent weeks, with March 2014 export inspections reaching 5.1 million tons, the high point for the year so far. However, prospects for corn exports are mostly supported by unprecedented outstanding export sales at the end of March. Reaching 18.5 million tons, outstanding sales are significantly higher than end-of-March outstanding sales going back to 1990. The only years with end-of-March outstanding sales close to those of this year are 1995/96 (at 16.7 million tons) and 2007/08 )at 15.9 million). Corn marketing year exports in 1995/96 and 2007/08 reached 52.8 million tons and 60.7 million, respectively.

Of the 18.5 million tons of outstanding corn sales in 2013/14, only 1.2 million are to China. Those sales may be resold to other destinations or cancelled due to ongoing problems clearing customs in China. However, the sales to other destinations are easily sufficient to support the increased U.S. export prospects.

U.S. corn exports in 2013/14 started at a relatively sluggish pace, with delayed harvest and intense competition from Brazil and Ukraine. Census corn exports for September 2013 through February 2014 reached only 18.9 million tons, the lowest level in a decade except for the previous year’s drought-devastated export pace. The corn outstanding export sales indicate that exports in the second half of 2013/14 will significantly exceed those of the first half. The U.S. export pace has benefitted more recently from a lull in competition as (1) Brazil’s port capacity is occupied with exporting soybeans, (2) Argentina’s corn crop has been marketed more slowly than normal due to macroeconomic and exchange rate problems, and (3) Ukraine’s torrid pace of exports to date and political uncertainty limit prospects for additional corn sales.

World corn trade is increased 3.5 million tons this month to a record 116.5 million. Abundant and cheaper corn supplies in 2013/14 are increasing projected global corn trade 16 percent year-to year.

Projected EU corn imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 12.0 million based on the pace of import licenses. Corn has been attractively priced relative to other grains, encouraging increased industrial use (up 1.5 million tons this month) as well as a year-over-year increase in feed use. Attractive export prices for wheat and barley have limited EU domestic use of those grains.

Algeria’s corn imports are projected up 0.5 million tons to 3.5 million; Iran’s corn imports are raised 0.4 million to 4.5 million; Egypt is increased 0.3 million tons to 6.5 million; Vietnam and Chile are boosted 0.2 million each; and Azerbaijan imports are increased slightly. However, corn imports by Ecuador are forecast lower.

The United States is not the only corn exporter benefitting from increased corn trade and the sluggish pace of Argentina’s exports. The strong pace of Ukraine’s corn export shipments, especially to the EU, support a 0.5-million-ton increase to19.0 million. Increased production and the strong pace of shipments to date support South Africa’s export increase of 0.3 million tons to 2.0 million and Russia’s higher corn export projection, up 0.2 million tons to 3.2 million. The slow start to Argentina’s corn exports reduces the projected exports in the 2013/14 trade year ending in September 2014. However, Argentina’s local marketing year exports are unchanged as shipments after October 1, 2014, are expected to offset slower earlier shipments.

U.S. Sorghum Exports Projected Up, the Highest in 6 Years

U.S. 2013/14 sorghum exports are forecast up 0.7 million tons this month to 4.7 million (up 20 million bushels to 180 million for the September-August marketing year). The pace of sales has been strong, especially to China, where sorghum does not face import quota restrictions or possible rejection as an unapproved genetically modified variety, issues that have affected corn imports. Sorghum in export positions has been generally priced at a premium to corn this year, pulling sorghum away from the domestic market. At the end of March, outstanding export sales reached 1.5 million tons, the highest end-of-March total in the USDSA, Foreign Agricultural Service database going back to 1990. October 2013 through February 2014 Census data and March export inspections push export shipment to 2.2 million tons, nearly double the previous year’s sluggish pace. The March 1, 2014, stocks report indicated relatively abundant stocks of sorghum in commercial hands, so additional sales and a strong shipping pace is anticipated over the next several months.

World sorghum trade is raised only 0.2 million tons this month to 7.3 million as reduced production cuts projected exports from Argentina 0.5 million tons to 1.5 million. China’s projected imports are raised 0.4 million tons to 3.4 million, but Mexico’s imports are trimmed.

U.S. Barley Exports Up, Import Prospects Trimmed

World barley trade in 2013/14 (October-September) is forecast nearly unchanged this month at 20.6 million tons. Reduced export prospects for Canada are mostly offset by increases for Australia and the United States. Canada has been affected by logistical problems moving grain, and barley is not expected to receive priority compared to canola and wheat. Canada’s barley exports are projected down 0.4 million tons to 1.5 million. However, the pace of shipments has been strong for Australia and the United States, with forecast exports boosted 0.2 and 0.1 million tons, respectively. With slower exports from Canada, U.S. barley import prospects are trimmed 0.1 million tons to 0.5 million.

World Coarse Grain Production Prospects Boosted This Month

Global coarse grain production in 2013/14 is projected up 3.3 million tons this month to 1,264.0 million, based on generally favorable weather in the Southern Hemisphere. Corn production prospects are up 6.4 million tons to a record 973.9 million, but millet is cut 1.7 million to 29.1 million and sorghum is reduced 1.1 million to 60.1 million. World barley production is trimmed 0.4 million tons this month, but oats, rye, and mixed grain are virtually unchanged.

In Brazil, favorable rains over the last month in the key states of Mato Grosso and Parana support a small increase in corn yields expected for second-crop corn. Also, rains in Rio Grande do Sul helped late-planted first-crop yields. Brazil corn production is projected up 2.0 million tons to 72.0 million. Rains in Mato Grosso during April and May will be crucial to determine final second-crop yields, with harvest mostly starting in June. Also, sorghum area planted as a second crop following soybeans is up 6 percent, boosting production prospects 0.3 million tons to 2.4 million. Low corn prices encouraged some producers to switch to sorghum because production costs are lower.

The grain production forecasts for all Sub-Saharan African countries were scrutinized by the interagency committees this month. Changes to forecast 2013/14 coarse grain production are made to more than 30 countries, with production for the region raised 1.0 million tons to 101.8 million. While corn production is boosted 2.8 million tons, sorghum is reduced 1.2 million.

South Africa’s corn production prospects are up 1.0 million tons this month to 14.0 million, supported by prospects for record yields. Rains have been exceptionally good in the normally arid western portion of the main corn region. Satellite imagery confirms the excellent crop condition. South Africa’s sorghum production forecast is also increased this month.

Rains across Ethiopia have also been quite favorable, and record corn yields are reported, boosting corn production 0.9 million tons to 6.5 million. Increased sorghum, barley, and millet yields contribute to coarse grain production up 1.4 million tons to 13.1 million. In Uganda record corn yields are reported, increasing production 0.9 million tons to 2.3 million, but in sorghum areas, rains were not favorable and reduced yields trim production 0.1 million tons to 0.3 million. In Tanzania, good, but not record, corn yields increase corn production 0.5 million tons to 4.7 million. In Burkina Faso, record corn yields and increased sorghum area boost coarse grain production 0.4 million tons to 4.7 million. For Benin, increased corn area and good, but not record, yields are producing a record corn crop of 1.4 million tons. However, reduced sorghum and millet yields limit the coarse grain production increase to 0.2 million tons. Increased coarse grain production of about 0.1 million tons is forecast for South Sudan, Togo, and Madagascar, with smaller increases for several other countries.

Some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa report production problems, mostly due to insufficient rain. In Sudan, sorghum yields are down sharply, cutting production 1.6 million tons to 2.2 million, the lowest level in 13 years. Reduced corn and sorghum yields are reported for Mozambique, cutting coarse grain production 0.8 million tons to 1.8 million. In Mali, corn and millet yields are down, reducing coarse grain production 0.7 million tons to 3.7 million. In Angola, corn area is down sharply, reducing production 0.3 million to 0.9 million. Coarse grain production is reduced 0.2 million tons for Chad and 0.1 million each for Niger and Senegal, with smaller reductions for several other countries.

In Russia, revisions to final harvest data likely included grain harvested later than normal, boosting coarse grain production 1.0 million tons to 35.7 million tons. Nearly all the increase was due to additional corn area harvested for grain, but there are also small increases in production of barley, oats, millet, and rye. Azerbaijan reported larger area and yield of barley and corn, boosting coarse grain production 0.3 million tons to 1.0 million.

Record corn area is reported for Vietnam, boosting production 0.3 million tons to 5.2 million. Small increases in corn area harvested for grain increases Mexican corn production 0.2 million tons to 21.9 million and Thai corn production 0.1 million to 4.9 million. There are also small production increases this month for corn in Colombia and barley in Jordan.

India reports a significant reduction in millet area, dropping production 0.9 million tons to 10.6 million. A smaller reduction in sorghum area is offset by increased yields.

China reported more production data on minor grains, cutting barley area and slashing production 0.8 million tons to 1.5 million. However, sorghum area is increased, boosting production 0.2 million tons to 2.7 million.

Argentina’s sorghum yields were hurt by dry hot weather in western marginal areas, cutting projected production 0.4 million tons to 4.2 million. A small increase in forecast corn area is offset by reduced expected yields.

In Burma, corn area and yield did not quite reach earlier expectations, reducing production 0.1 million tons to 1.7 million. There are also small reductions this month to barley production in Tunisia and corn in South Korea.

World coarse grain beginning stocks for 2013/14 are increased 0.3 million tons this month to 164.7 million, adding to supplies. Changes to estimated production, supply, and demand for earlier years are made for many countries, partly due to the review of Sub-Saharan Africa. Coarse grain beginning stocks for 2013/14 are up 0.4 million tons for Ethiopia, 0.3 million for Sudan, and 0.2 million for Uganda, Tanzania, Niger, and Brazil. Reduced beginning stocks are estimated for South Africa, down 0.4 million tons; the EU and Argentina, down 0.3 million each; and several other countries, down by smaller amounts.

Global Coarse Grain Disappearance Projected Higher

World coarse grain use in 2013/14 is projected to reach 1,236.6 million tons, up 2.8 million this month. However, the sum of changes to forecast use by countries is mostly offsetting, boosting global use only 0.4 million tons. Global local marketing year export projections are raised 2.5 million tons more than imports, boosting global disappearance (see special article in the June 2013 Feed Outlook for an explanation of how and why trade changes alter global disappearance).

Several of the mostly offsetting changes in individual countries’ coarse grain use are significant. With several years of good harvests, Ethiopia’s coarse grain consumption is boosted 1.5 million tons to 13.1 million; while Uganda’s consumption is forecast up 0.9 million to 3.4 million. EU coarse grain use is forecast up 1.0 million tons to 162.0 million as a 1.5-million-ton increase in industrial use of corn is partly offset by a 0.5-million-ton reduction in feed and residual use. Russia’s feed use is increased 0.5 million tons. Coarse grain use is projected up 0.3 million tons each for Algeria, Burkina, Tanzania, and South Africa, with smaller increases for several other countries. However, coarse grain use in Sudan is projected down 1.4 million tons to 3.2 million as sorghum production drops. India’s coarse grain use projection declines 0.8 million tons to 36.7 million as the millet crop shrinks. Mozambique consumption is reduced 0.7 million tons to 1.9 million due to reduced production. Canada’s coarse grain use is projected down 0.6 million tons to 22.6 million, mostly because of reduced barley feed use. The 0.6-million-ton reduction in Mali’s coarse grain use (to 3.8 million) is mostly in projected food use. Coarse grain use forecasts are trimmed 0.3 million tons each for Australia and China, with smaller declines for several other countries.

World Ending Stocks Projected Slightly Higher

Global coarse grain production in 2013/14 is forecast up more than projected use, allowing for a 0.7-million-ton increase in ending stocks to 192.2 million. Many sizable changes are mostly offsetting. The largest increase is for Brazil, up 2.3 million tons to 12.5 million due to increased corn and sorghum production. Canada’s ending stocks are projected up 1.0 million tons to 5.2 million due to reduced barley feeding. With improved production prospects, ending stocks are forecast up 0.4 million tons each for Tanzania and Ethiopia. Stocks prospects are boosted 0.3 million tons each for Egypt, Russia, and Vietnam, with smaller increases for several others. These increases are partly offset by reductions for the United States, down 3.5 million tons; Ukraine, down 0.5 million, Argentina, reduced 0.4 million; the EU trimmed 0.3 million; and others with smaller reductions.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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