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USDA WASDE


14 September 2015

USDA WASDE - 14 September 2015USDA WASDE - 14 September 2015


USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

WHEAT: Projected U.S. exports for 2015/16 are lowered 25 million bushels to 900 million on increased foreign supplies. Ending stocks are increased by the same amount to 875 million bushels, which are the largest since the 2009/10 crop year. The season-average farm price is lowered 20 cents on the high end to $4.65 to $5.35 per bushel. The reduction reflects increased competition for U.S. wheat and growing domestic stocks. Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 6.7 million tons, primarily on increased production in the EU and FSU. Partly offsetting are reductions in Canada and India. EU yields are significantly better than expected and the 2015 crop is now only 2.3 million tons below last year’s record. Partly offsetting are reductions in Canada and India. These production changes reflect harvest reports and updated government estimates to date. The global wheat crop is now projected at 731.6 million tons and the third consecutive record. World beginning stocks are up 1.6 million tons, led by a large increase for Canada as reported by Statistics Canada. World exports are higher with by far the biggest increase for the EU, which is raised 1.5 million tons on the much larger crop. Ukraine was raised 0.5 million tons also on a larger crop. Partially offsetting is a 0.7-million-ton reduction for the United States due to increased foreign competition. Global imports are up, with the biggest increases being 0.5 million tons for Brazil and 0.3 million tons for Philippines. EU imports are reduced 0.5 million tons and Indonesia is reduced 0.3 million tons. Global use is up 1.6 million tons on increased feed use, especially in the EU and Russia and the Philippines. Reductions in food use are partially offsetting. With supplies growing much faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 5.1 million tons to a record 226.6 million tons.

COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies are reduced this month with lower forecast corn production more than offsetting a small increase for sorghum. Corn production is forecast 101 million bushels lower with the national average yield expected at 167.5 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from the August forecast. A 40-million-bushel reduction in projected beginning stocks, reflecting higher expected corn food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) and exports in 2014/15, also reduces projected supplies for 2015/16. U.S. corn usage for 2015/16 is lowered 20 million bushels, but usage is expected to be record high and just above the level projected for 2014/15. Feed and residual use for 2015/16 is expected 25 million bushels lower with the smaller crop. FSI use is projected 5 million bushels higher on an increase in expected use for sweeteners consistent with this month’s upward revision to that usage category for 2014/15. Despite higher projected global import demand, projected corn exports for 2015/16 are unchanged with tighter supplies. U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected 121 million bushels lower and 140 million bushels below this month’s lowered 2014/15 carryout projection. The 2015/16 season-average corn price received by producers is projected 10 cents higher on both ends to $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel. Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 2.3 million tons lower as a 7.5-million-ton reduction in world corn production more than offsets a 5.3-million-ton increase in world barley output. Much of the decline in global corn production reflects a 4.3-million-ton reduction in EU corn and this month’s lower U.S. production, but small reductions are also made for the Philippines, Moldova, Serbia, and Thailand. Barley production is raised for Russia, EU, Canada, Turkey, and Ukraine. Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is raised slightly, mostly on higher expected barley consumption for EU and Saudi Arabia. Global corn consumption is lowered 2.3 million tons with the reduction in U.S. feed and residual use and lower corn feeding expected in EU. Higher EU barley and wheat feeding more than offset reductions for corn and oats. EU corn imports are raised 1.0 million tons. Global corn imports for 2015/16 are raised 2.0 million tons as increases for Vietnam, Mexico, and the Philippines combine with that for EU. Corn exports for 2015/16 are raised for Ukraine. A 1.0-million-ton increase in 2014/15 Brazil corn exports, reflecting higher expected shipments through February 2016, also helps meet higher expected global corn import demand resulting from the crop short-fall in EU during the 2015/16 marketing year. Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 5.4 million tons lower at 189.7 million, 7.5 million lower than for 2014/15.

RICE: U.S. 2015/16 rice supplies are lowered 14.9 million cwt from last month resulting from a decrease in production that is partially offset by a slight increase in beginning stocks. Imports are unchanged. U.S. rice production for 2015/16 is forecast at 189.5 million cwt, down 15.5 million from last month due to a decrease in both area harvested and yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.57 million acres, down 174,000 from last month. Harvested area estimates are lowered for all states except California. The average all rice yield is estimated at 7,374 pounds per acre, down 98 pounds per acre from last month, with decreases in all states except Mississippi. Long-grain rice production is forecast at 131.5 million cwt, down 17.5 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 58.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million. All rice beginning stocks for 2014/15 are raised 0.7 million cwt from last month to 48.5 million (rough-equivalent basis) based on USDA’s August Rice Stocks report. All rice 2015/16 domestic consumption and residual is lowered 4.0 million cwt to 125.0 million due mainly to lower supplies. Exports are forecast at 97.0 million cwt, down 10.0 million from last month with long-grain exports down 10.0 million, but medium- and short-grain unchanged. All rice ending stocks are lowered 0.9 million cwt to 41.5 million. The 2015/16 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.80 to $13.80 per cwt, up $1.30 per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $11.90 per cwt for 2014/15. The all medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.50 to $18.50 per cwt, down 30 cents per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $17.90 per cwt for 2014/15. The California medium- and short-grain rice price, at a midpoint of $21.00 per cwt, is unchanged from last month. The Other States medium-and short-grain rice price, at a midpoint of $14.50 per cwt, is lowered 30 cents per cwt. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.20 to $15.20 per cwt, up 80 cents per cwt from a month ago compared to a revised $13.20 per cwt for 2014/15. Projected global 2015/16 rice ending stocks are reduced on lower supplies. Global rice production is projected at 475.8 million tons, down 2.9 million from last month, primarily due to smaller crops forecast for Burma, China, Egypt, Indonesia, Philippines, and the United States. This is the first year-to-year decrease in production since 2009/10. Burma’s crop is lowered due to significant widespread flooding in late July through mid-August. China’s crop is lowered based mostly on early rice crop production data released by the government of China. Egypt’s rice crop is lowered due to prolonged excessive heat during the growing season. Indonesia’s crop is lowered due to a downward adjustment in expected yield. The Philippines crop is lowered due to a decrease in area and expected yield. Global beginning stocks are raised 1.8 million tons, due mostly to an increase in India. India’s 2014/15 rice crop is raised 2.3 million tons based on data released by the government of India. India’s exports for 2015/16 are raised 0.5 million tons to 9.0 million, partially offset by a reduction of 0.4 million for Burma to 1.8 million. Global 2015/16 rice consumption is lowered slightly from last month. Global 2015/16 ending stocks are projected at 90.2 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, and a decline of 11.7 million from the previous year. Ending stocks are lowered for Burma, China, Egypt, Indonesia, and the Philippines; and raised for India and Vietnam.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 116.1 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month on increased soybean, cottonseed, and peanut production. Soybean production is forecast at 3,935 million bushels, up 19 million due to a higher yield forecast. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,870 million on increased domestic disappearance of soybean meal, which is raised in line with an increase for 2014/15. With lower beginning stocks and higher use, soybean ending stocks are projected at 450 million bushels, down 20 million. Changes for 2014/15 include higher exports and crush, resulting in reduced ending stocks. Exports are increased 10 million to a record 1,835 million bushels based on reported trade through July and indications from August export inspections. Crush is increased 25 million bushels to 1,870 million on increased soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Ending stocks are projected at 210 million bushels, down 30 million. The 2015/16 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.40 to $9.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $310 to $350 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 27.5 to 30.5 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends of the range. Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 527.2 million tons, down 1.9 million from last month. Soybean production is reduced for Ukraine, where dry conditions in August lowered yield expectations. Soybean production is also reduced for Canada with lower yields more than offsetting increased harvested area as reported by Statistics Canada. Sunflowerseed production forecasts are lowered for several countries including China, the EU, Moldova, and India. Global rapeseed production is raised slightly with gains for Canada and the EU mostly offset by reductions for India and Turkey. Other changes include reduced peanut production for India and reduced cottonseed production for Brazil. Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is reduced 1.0 million tons to 143.8 million, mainly reflecting reduced soybean exports for Ukraine. Global oilseed crush is projected lower on reduced oilseed supplies. Global oilseed stocks are projected lower mainly on lower soybean stocks in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Ukraine, and the United States.

SUGAR: U.S. beginning stocks for 2015/16 are decreased 90,291 short tons, raw value (STRV) from last month due to revised estimates for 2014/15, including supply reduction of 6,291, a 119,000 increase in deliveries, and a 35,000 decrease in exports. Total 2015/16 sugar production is projected at 8.734 million STRV, a 66,000 decrease from last month. Beet sugar is increased by 54,000 STRV to 5.034 million based on a National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) increase in sugarbeet yield from 29.9 to 30.2 tons per acre. Florida cane sugar production is increased 30,000 STRV to 1.940 million based on a NASS sugarcane yield increase from 38.0 to 38.8 tons/acre. Louisiana cane sugar production is decreased 140,000 STRV to 1.450 million based on NASS’s reduction of area harvested by 12,000 acres and a yield decrease from 32.0 to 30.0 tons/acre. Hawaii sugar production is reduced by 10,000 STRV to 180,000. Imports for 2015/16 are projected at 3.394 million STRV, an increase of 24,959. With no change in total use, ending stocks are projected at 1.648 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent. Mexico beginning stocks for 2015/16 are estimated at 799,975 metric tons (MT), down 36,799 from last month. Production for 2015/16 is unchanged at 6.0 million. Sugar deliveries for consumption for 2015/16 are unchanged at 4.501 million MT, but it is assumed that high fructose corn syrup deliveries will be 1.446 million MT, dry weight, for 2014/15 and 2015/16, an increase of 26,000 for both years. Other deliveries are projected at 323,826 MT to bring total deliveries to 4.825 million. Exports to the United States are forecast at 1.318 million MT, down 7,278 based on changes made in the September sugar WASDE for the United States as per the Countervailing Duty (CVD) Suspension Agreement of December 19, 2014 (“Target Quantity of U.S. Sugar Needs”). Exports to other countries are projected at 10,000 MT, the same as last month. Ending stocks for 2015/16 are forecast residually at 802,647 MT, implying an ending stocks-to-consumption ratio of 17.8 percent.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecasts for total meat production in 2015 and 2016 are lowered from last month. Beef production for 2015 is lowered due to a slower pace of slaughter in the third quarter, but the decline is partly offset by heavier carcass weights. The forecast for 2016 is raised as continued increases in carcass weights support higher beef production. The pork production forecast for 2015 is reduced as the pace of slaughter in the third quarter is lower-thanexpected. No change is made to 2016 forecasts. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 25, providing an estimate of market hog supplies and farrowing intentions into early 2016. Broiler production for 2015 and 2016 is lowered from last month as producers respond to weaker margins. Turkey production for 2015 is lowered based on hatchery data, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. Egg production for 2015 is lowered based on a slower-than-expected recovery in table egg production and lower hatching egg production, the latter a result of slower growth in the broiler sector. Beef imports are reduced for 2015 based on the pace on imports in July, but the forecast for 2016 is raised as product shipped late in 2015 may not arrive until early 2016. Beef exports for 2015 are lowered as demand in the second half of the year is projected to remain relatively weak. Pork import and export forecasts are unchanged. Broiler exports are reduced from last month as slow demand is expected to continue for the remainder of the year and into 2016. Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on weaker demand and competition from other meats. Hog prices are higher for 2015 based on prices in the third quarter. Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on relatively large broiler meat supplies. Turkey prices are unchanged from last month. Egg prices for 2015 are lowered slightly, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. The milk production forecast for 2015 is raised on a larger expected cow herd and slightly more rapid growth in milk per cow. However, the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. Fat-basis imports are increased and exports are reduced for 2015 and 2016. Domestic demand for butter, and to a lesser extent cheese, encourages imports and limits export potential. Fat basis ending stocks are raised. Skim-solids imports are unchanged for 2015 and 2016. Exports are reduced on lower expected sales of nonfat dry milk and whey. Domestic demand for butter is expected to support relatively high prices in the United States. As a result, the butter price forecast is increased for both 2015 and 2016. Cheese prices are raised for 2015, but increased production in 2016 may pressure prices despite growing domestic demand. Thus, the price forecast for 2016 is lowered. Nonfat dry milk prices are forecast higher in 2015 reflecting the recent rebound in prices, but the forecast is unchanged for 2016. Whey prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016. Class III prices are reduced for 2015 and 2016, largely reflecting lower whey prices. Class IV prices are raised primarily due to the higher butter price. The all milk price is raised to $16.80 to $17.00 per cwt for 2015, but lowered to $16.10 to $17.10 per cwt for 2016.

COTTON: The 2015/16 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is raised to 13.4 million bales, as an increase of 458,000 bales for Texas is partially offset by revisions for other states. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are raised to 10.2 million bales based on the larger available supply. Ending stocks are now projected at 3.2 million bales, or 23 percent of disappearance. The marketing year average price received by producers is projected to range from 56.0 to 68.0 cents per pound, a reduction of 3 cents at the midpoint from last month based on larger U.S. supplies and lower world consumption. Estimated U.S. 2014/15 ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 3.7 million bales, reflecting stocks data from the Farm Services Agency and the Cotton System Consumption and Stocks report of the National Agricultural Statistics Service. See http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/cws-cotton-and-wool-outlook/cws-15i.aspx after noon on Tuesday, September 15 for a detailed explanation of the stocks calculation. With lower 2015/16 global cotton consumption, and virtually unchanged global supplies, world ending stocks are projected higher than last month. Production is reduced for Brazil and Pakistan, partially offset by the increase for the United States. Forecast world consumption is reduced for several countries, including Brazil, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey, as economic uncertainties and rising yarn stocks point to lower-than-expected demand. World trade is reduced slightly as a result of the lower consumption. World ending stocks are projected at 106.3 million bales. 

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