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USDA Livestock & Poultry: World Markets & Trade


19 October 2015

USDA Livestock & Poultry: World Markets & Trade - 19 October 2015USDA Livestock & Poultry: World Markets & Trade - 19 October 2015


USDA Livestock & Poultry: World Markets & Trade

Production and Trade of All Meats to Expand in 2016

Beef and Veal:

• Global production is forecast to rebound 1 percent higher to 59.2 million tons. Continuing herd expansion will drive production higher for major traders – particularly the United States, India, and Brazil. India continues to expand on growing foreign demand; exports account for 48 percent of production compared to only 18 percent for Brazil. Reduced slaughter will drive Australian production lower as inventories have been depleted and the return of favorable pasture conditions will spur herd rebuilding.

• Exports by major traders are forecast 3 percent higher to 9.9 million tons on stronger demand. Gains are expected for most major traders including India, Brazil, and the United States. India will remain the top exporter as demand improves in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. Brazilian exports will rebound as a weaker real increases competitiveness and the reopening of the Chinese market creates new opportunities.

• U.S. production is expected to rise for the first time since 2010 as cattle inventories recover on improved pasture conditions and lower feed costs. Exports are forecast 6 percent higher as growing domestic supplies put downward pressure on prices. A reduction in Australian exports will enable the United States to regain market share in Asia which will offset stagnant shipments to Canada and Mexico.

Pork:

• Global production is forecast virtually unchanged at 112.0 million tons on marginal expansion by most countries. After three consecutive years of contraction, Chinese swine inventories are forecast stable in 2016 as lower feed costs and higher pork prices spur a slight increase in sows and improved efficiency (pigs per sow and industry consolidation). However, Chinese pork production will remain flat as a decline in slaughter offsets heavier weights. Russian production is higher on significant capacity investments, industry consolidation, stable feed prices and robust domestic demand.

• Exports by major traders are forecast 2 percent higher to nearly 7.3 million tons as robust supplies drive prices lower, stimulating consumption. Marginal increases in purchases by most major importers will more than offset a further decline in imports by Russia. Among key suppliers, only the United States will undergo significant export expansion.

• U.S. production is forecast up 1 percent to a record 11.3 million tons on continued strong recovery from PEDv. Exports are forecast over 4 percent higher to 2.4 million tons as competitive prices will bolster shipments to most markets, particularly Mexico.

Broiler Meat:

• Global production is forecast to increase 2 percent to a record 89.3 million tons on expansion by all major traders. After surpassing China to become the second largest producer in 2015, Brazil is expected to continue expanding more rapidly due to stable feed costs and increased exports. India, the fastest growing producer, is expected to increase 8 percent on rising demand by a growing middle class.

• Exports by major traders are forecast to rebound 4 percent to a record 10.7 million tons. Shipments will increase by the top three suppliers, Brazil, the United States, and the EU, which account for more than three quarters of world trade. Exports will be driven by robust supplies placing downward pressure on prices, lower prices compared to other animal proteins, and a weak euro and Brazilian real. Although constrained by lower oil prices and weak economic growth, many smaller markets will have marginal improvements in demand.

• U.S. production is forecast to increase 2 percent to a record 18.4 million tons on heavier weights and lower feed costs. Exports are expected to rebound 8 percent to 3.2 million tons as lower prices and greater exportable supplies bolster shipments.

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