Pork Commentary: World Pork Expo Report12 June 2012
US - This past week we attended the World Pork Expo in Des Moines Iowa where we had great weather. The expo was well organized and attendance was good. We commend the National Pork Producers Council for a job well done, writes Jim Long.
- Producers attitudes we would call neutral – not overly positive and not overly negative. In our opinion negative people don’t usually come to expos and that in itself is a sort.
- In the last week it appears packers have had to look for hogs a lot harder than previously. Is supply getting tighter? Probably it does every year at this time.
- Our discussions with builders and equipment companies indicated to us that there are lots of finishers being built. On the flip side we believe very few sow units are under construction. Probably no more than 30 thousand sows this year.
- As a Genetic Company we had several discussions about group housing and ESF Systems. It appears that many producers see the train coming down the track on the future of sow housing. Producers are looking for calm sows with good feet and legs for group housing. At Genesus we are very fortunate to have a group housing customer who weaned 31.6 for calendar year 2011. Ends conversations real quick on how Genesus sows do in ESF’s.
- From discussions with feeder pig brokers it appears that the floor is in early wean and feeder pig prices. It appears supply has got tighter from pig sellers keeping ownership rather than selling cheap.
- Corn growers we talked to said corn looks good but could use rain. Corn we saw was 2 – 3 feet high and shading in. Industry needs a 14 billion bushel crop. It seems to us that corn could be $4.50 to $6.50 in the coming months. Volatile – with some corn growers with break evens over $5.00 a bushel. The gold mine of corn growing might be not as bright as some believe. Throw in oil price declines that make ethanol less attractive and a stronger US dollar and heaven knows what can happen.
- It appears to us there were fewer people this year at the Expo from Mexico and the rest of Latin America. Not sure why but we suspect profit challenge in Mexico lead to fewer visitors.
- We want to thank all of the readers of the commentary who asked about our car accident in China and how we are feeling. The number of people who knew about the accident certainly was eye opening and confirmation of how many readers we have. Thanks once again.
World Pork Expo was successful. We see little net sow herd expansion. Hog prices are rising. Chicken and beef supply is down. Pork exports are and will remain strong.
|Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics|
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