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June Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report Analysis

03 July 2012
Ron Plain
Ron Plain

US - USDA’s June Hogs and Pigs report said the market hog inventory was slightly smaller than pre-release trade forecasts and the breeding herd inventory were slightly larger than pre-release trade forecasts, writes Ron Plain.

USDA said the market inventory was up 0.8 per cent and kept for breeding was up 1.0 per cent. USDA’s estimate of the total number of hogs and pigs on US farms at the start of June was 0.8 per cent larger than 12 months earlier. (See Table 1 below) The average of the pre-release trade estimates was for a 1.4 per cent increase in the market hog inventory, a 0.7 per cent increase in the swine breeding herd, and a 1.3 per cent increase in the total inventory.

USDA made some upward revisions to past inventory estimates to bring them more in line with spring hog slaughter. USDA raised their previous estimate of the March market hog inventory by 210,000 head (0.4 per cent), increased the reported number of sows farrowed during September-November 2011 by 35,000 (1.2 per cent) and increased the September-November pig crop by 351,000 head (1.2 per cent).

The June swine breeding herd is 42,000 head larger than on 1 March and the largest since September 2009. In 2011, the June breeding herd inventory was 15,000 head larger than on 1 March. Thus, USDA says the breeding herd grew by 27,000 head this spring compared to last. March-May sow slaughter was down by 18,000 head compared to a year ago. Imports of Canadian sows for slaughter was up by 2,600, leaving 15,400 fewer US sows slaughtered this winter than last. The USDA data implies 11,600 more gilts were added to the breeding herd this spring than last. This is far more than indicated by our gilt slaughter data.

USDA said spring (March-May) farrowings were up 0.1 per cent from a year ago. They forecast summer farrowings to be down 0.9 per cent and fall farrowings to be down 1.3 per cent compared to 12 months earlier. (See Table 3) Spring farrowings were 0.5 per cent greater than trade expectations. USDA’s forecast of summer farrowings is 0.1 per cent lower than expected and fall farrowing intentions are 1.0 per cent below the trade forecast. USDA says the breeding herd is up 1.0 per cent, but the number of litters to be farrowed in the next six months will be down 1.1 per cent. History shows farrowing intentions to be a better predictor of future hog slaughter than is the breeding herd inventory.

The number of pigs per litter during March-May, 10.09 head, was up 0.6 per cent from a year ago. The trade was expecting a 1.3 per cent increase. The 10.09 head was a new record, but the 0.6 per cent increase was the smallest since June-August 2006. Spring farrowings were up 0.1 per cent and with 0.6 per cent more pigs per litter, the spring pig crop was up 0.6 per cent.

USDA’s survey indicated the number of market hogs weighing 180 pounds or more on 1 June was up 0.5 per cent compared with 12 months earlier. (See Table 2) It looks like daily barrow and gilt slaughter in June was up 0.1 per cent. The 120-179 pound market hog group was up 1.4 per cent from June 2011. The 50-179 pound inventory was up 1.2 per cent; and the inventory of pigs weighing less than 50 pounds was up 0.1 per cent compared to a year earlier.

Live animal imports from Canada during the March-May quarter showed feeder pigs up 4.4 per cent and slaughter hog imports down 15.0 per cent. Imports of Canadian hogs and pigs for 2011 totaled 5.8 million head. Look for 2012 imports to be close to that same level.

Based on the 50-179 pound market hog inventory and the expectation of little change in live hog imports, our forecast is for an increase of 1.3 per cent in third quarter 2012 daily hog slaughter. With this level of pork production, we expect 51-52 per cent lean hogs to average in the high $60s live and Iowa-Minnesota negotiated sales to average close to $92/cwt on a carcass weight basis.

For the fourth quarter of 2012 we expect hog slaughter to be up 0.8 per cent on a daily basis with 51-52 per cent lean hogs averaging close to $60 live and Iowa hogs averaging around $80/cwt on a carcass basis.

With the number of litters farrowed expected to be down 0.9 per cent this summer and pigs per litter increasing by 1.5 per cent or so, the summer pig crop is likely to be 0.6 per cent above a year earlier. We are forecasting first quarter 2013 daily slaughter to be up 0.6 per cent compared to a year ago. Look for carcass prices of barrows and gilts to average in the low $80s/cwt. Slaughter weights are likely to average 0.5 per cent higher.

The forecast 1.3 per cent decrease in fall farrowings should be offset by an increase in litter size to yield a fall pig crop a bit above a year-earlier causing second quarter 2013 hog slaughter to be up 0.2 per cent on a daily basis.

Our estimates of slaughter and prices for the next four quarters are in Table 4. We expect 2012 pork production to be 2.4 per cent higher than in 2011 and hog prices to be $4/cwt or so lower than last year.

Table 1.  Hog Inventories June 1, U.S.
______________________________________________________________

                                           2012 as % of 2011
       All hogs and pigs                         100.8
       Kept for breeding                         101.0
       Market hogs                               100.8
______________________________________________________________

Table 2.  Market Hogs on Farms June 1, U.S.
______________________________________________________________

     Weight Category                       2012 as % of 2011
        Under 50 pounds                          100.1
        50 - 119 pounds                          101.2
        120 - 179 pounds                         101.4
        180 pounds and over                      100.5
	Pig Crop
	  December-February                      100.6
______________________________________________________________

Table 3.  Sows Farrowed and Farrowing Intentions, U.S.
______________________________________________________________

                                    2011 as % of 2010
	 December-February                   99.0
	 March-May 2011                      99.6
	 June-August 2011                    99.4
	 September-November 2011            100.7
                                    2012 as % of 2011
	 December-February                  101.2
	 March-May 2012                     100.1
	 June-August 2012                    99.1
	 September-November 2012             98.7
______________________________________________________________

Table 4.  Commercial Hog Slaughter and Barrow and Gilt Price by Quarter
_________________________________________________________________________

          ---Comm. Slaughter---      -----Barrows & Gilts, price/cwt-----
                    Change from       51-52%     Iowa-Minn   Non-packer-sold
Year &   Million    year ago           Lean        Base           Net
Quarter   Head    monthly   daily      Live      Carcass        Carcass
_________________________________________________________________________

2007 1    26.684    + 1.8%   +1.8%    $46.04      $59.90        $62.69
     2    25.526    + 2.8    +2.8      52.55       69.45         71.39
     3    26.566    + 2.9    +2.9      50.34       66.14         69.17
     4    30.396    + 9.0    +7.3      39.44       52.08         56.83
  Year   109.172    + 4.2    +4.2      47.09       61.91         65.04

2008 1    29.601    +10.9%  +10.9%    $39.64      $52.49        $57.41
     2    27.941    + 9.5    +9.5      52.51       70.43         72.24
     3    28.696    + 8.0    +6.3      57.27       75.67         78.05
     4    30.214    - 0.6    -0.6      41.92       55.60         61.38
  Year   116.452    + 6.7    +6.3      47.83       63.58         67.27

2009 1    28.503    - 3.7%   -2.2%    $42.11      $57.23        $60.43
     2    27.072    - 3.1    -3.1      42.74       57.32         61.76
     3    28.428    - 0.9    -0.9      38.90       51.43         56.68
     4    29.615    - 2.0    -2.0      41.20       54.98         57.64
  Year   113.618    - 2.4    -2.0      41.24       55.23         59.11

2010 1    27.630    - 3.1%   -3.1%    $50.41      $66.81        $68.32
     2    26.074    - 3.7    -3.7      59.60       79.04         79.42
     3    26.930    - 5.3    -5.3      60.13       79.44         80.70
     4    29.626    + 0.1    +0.1      50.11       65.20         69.26
  Year   110.260    - 3.0    -3.0      55.06       72.67         74.47

2011 1    27.483    - 0.5%   -2.1%    $59.94      $79.28        $80.63
     2    26.110    + 0.1    +0.1      68.80       91.80         92.39
     3    27.379    + 1.7    +1.7      71.06       94.03         95.74
     4    29.888    + 0.9    +2.5      64.66       85.03         87.39
  Year   110.860    + 0.5    +0.5      66.11       87.54         89.04

2012 1    28.104    + 2.3%   +2.3%    $62.66      $84.78        $86.56
     2*   26.651    + 2.1    +2.1      62.02       85.45         87.76
     3**  27.300    - 0.3    +1.3     68 - 71     90 - 94       92 - 96
     4**  30.600    + 2.4    +0.8     58 - 61     77 - 81       79 - 83
  Year** 112.655    + 1.6    +1.6     63 - 66     84 - 87       86 - 89

2013 1**  27.825    - 1.0%   +0.6%   $60 - 63    $79 - 83     $81 - 85
     2**  26.700    + 0.2    +0.2     64 - 67     85 - 89      87 - 91

 *estimated
 **forecast

_________________________________________________________________________

Further Reading

You can view the Hogs and Pigs report by clicking here.

ThePigSite News Desk



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