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Hog Outlook: Hog Prices Increase More in May Than Other Months

06 May 2013
Ron Plain
Ron Plain

US - Corn planting is falling far behind average. As of 28 April, 5 per cent of corn acres were planted compared to 49 per cent a year ago and a 5-year average of 31 per cent planted by 28 April, write Ron Plain and Scott Brown.

Delayed planting is boosting corn prices, especially for the nearby contracts. Delayed planting means delayed harvest which could cause very tight corn supplies in late summer, given last year's short crop. May corn futures gained 56 cents this week to end at $6.995/bu. December corn settled at $5.535/bu, up 11 cents for the week.

May soybean meal futures ended the week at $417.80/ton, down 10 cents for the week. December meal settled at $345.20/ton.

Spring rains have improved moisture conditions for most of the country east of Kansas City. But, the high plains, from Texas to North Dakota, are still short on soil moisture.

Friday morning's pork cutout calculation based on mandatory price reporting was $87.84/cwt FOB plants, up 69 cents from the week before. Loin, ham, and butt prices were higher this week, bellies lower.

The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $84.56/cwt, up $6.18 from last Friday and up $10.36 from two weeks ago. The eastern corn belt averaged $84.34/cwt this morning. The western corn belt averaged $86.64/cwt. Iowa-Minnesota did not have enough early day sales for a morning price report. Peoria had a top live price this morning of $56/cwt. Zumbrota, MN topped at $58/cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs Friday was $60.75/cwt, up $3 from the previous Friday. The average hog carcass price is 96.3 per cent of the calculated pork cutout value based on mandatory reporting.

On average, hog prices increase more in May than in any other month. The key to higher hog prices is higher cutout value.

Hog slaughter this week totaled 2.098 million head, down 2.3 per cent from the week before, but up 0.9 per cent compared to the same week last year.

The average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 278.0 pounds, up 0.9 pound from a week earlier and up 1.9 pounds from a year ago. Last summer was miserably hot. Hogs don't grow well when they are hot. This spring is on track to be one of the coolest on record. If the cool weather persists, hog weights are likely to stay above year-ago, adding to pork tonnage.

The May lean hog futures contract closed at $91.40/cwt today, up $2.05 from the previous week. June hog futures ended the week 35 cents lower at $92.17/cwt. July hogs settled at $92.30/cwt and August at $91.50/cwt.

ThePigSite News Desk

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