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Allendale, Inc. Releases US Cold Storage, Cattle on Feed Estimates

20 August 2013

ANALYSIS - Allendale Inc projects a 528 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of July. USDA will release its 'Cold Storage' report 22 August.

Allendale projects a 528 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of July. The five year average is 488 million lbs. for the end of July.

Our estimate represents a decrease of 38 million lbs. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for July is a 34 million lb. decrease.

Beef stocks, at 480 million lbs., are above the five year average of 428. This month's number represents a 1 million lb. decrease from the previous month. The five year average month to month change is nil.

Allendale Inc expects July Cattle On Feed placements to be 11.6 per cent higher than last fall. Cattle feeders are taking notice of cheaper corn coming this fall. Corn in western Kansas fell from $7.30 in June to $6.92 in July. This was despite terrible margin conditions on outgoing fat cattle (27 months of losses).

Cash cattle prices fell from $121 in June to $119 in July. July placements will be marketed from December to March. There will not be abundant Q1 cattle slaughter. There was a severe shortfall in lightweight placements in May and June.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 3.8 per cent higher than July 2012. There was one more weekday in July 2013 than in 2012.

As of July 1, total Cattle on Feed  will be 1.8 per cent smaller than last year. This would be smaller than the July 1 survey which showed 3.2 per cent fewer cattle.

 

Allendale Cattle On Feed Estimates

**Pork Belly stocks are estimated - in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.

 

ThePigSite News Desk

Top image via Shutterstock



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