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Hog Outlook: October Pork Exports Down Compared to Year Ago

09 December 2013
Ron Plain
Ron Plain

US - Pork exports during October were down 11.7 per cent compared to a year ago due to big declines in shipments to Russia and South Korea. Exports equaled 20.06 per cent of November pork production, write Ron Plain and Scott Brown.

Pork imports were up 15.7 per cent compared to October 2012 with large increases coming from Canada and Poland. Imports equaled 3.56 per cent of October pork production.

Imports of live hogs in October were down 42.8 per cent with 45.4 per cent fewer feeder pigs coming in from Canada and 28.1 per cent fewer other hogs imported.

Through October 2013, US pork exports were down 9.0 per cent and pork imports were up 9.0 per cent compared to the first 10 months of 2012. Imports of hogs and pigs were down 12.7 per cent.

Retail pork demand was up 5.9 per cent during October. This was the tenth consecutive month with demand above the year-ago level. Export demand for US pork was down 8.6 per cent during October.

Testing data from the National Animal Health Laboratory Network says that as of November 24, the PED virus has been confirmed on 1,373 swine premises in 19 states. This is an increase of 96 locations from the week before. This was the second largest weekly increase. Two-thirds of the cases are in three states - Iowa, Oklahoma and North Carolina. There is an unknown amount of double counting in this data.

Hog prices were $2 to $3 lower this week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $78.46/cwt, down $2.67 from seven days ago and down $3.39 from a year ago. There were no regional hog price reports this morning due to confidentiality rules associated with light volume. Peoria had a live price top this morning of $54/cwt. Zumbrota, MN topped at $55/cwt. The top price for interior Missouri live hog top Friday was $54.25/cwt.

Friday morning's pork cutout value based on mandatory price reporting was $87.48/cwt FOB plants, down $2.04 from the week before, but up $2.33 from a year ago. This morning's hog prices averaged 89.7 per cent of the cutout value.

Hog slaughter this week totaled 2.325 million head, up 12.8 per cent from the week before, which was light due to Thanksgiving, but down 1.6 per cent compared to the same week last year.

Hog slaughter weights in Iowa-Minnesota set a new record for the fifth consecutive week. The average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 281.7 pounds, up 0.3 pounds from a week earlier and up 6.5 pounds from a year ago.

This week's hog slaughter was down 1.6 per cent compared to last year, but due to heavier weights pork production was up 0.5 per cent.

The December lean hog futures contract settled at $81.67/cwt today, down $5.30 from the previous Friday. February hog futures ended the week at $89.00/cwt, down $1.57 from the week before. April hogs lost $1.85 to close at $92.05. The June contract ended the week at $99.70/cwt.

December corn futures ended the week at $4.24 per bushel, up 9 cents from the week before.

ThePigSite News Desk

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