- news, features, articles and disease information for the swine industry


USDA Reports Bearish for Soy, Slightly Bullish for Corn, Neutral Wheat

12 August 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

ANALYSIS - Corn futures initially moved to a new contract low in the wake of Tuesday's USDA supply and demand and crop production reports - but mainly due to a sell-off in the soybean futures market following the data, writes livestock Jim Wyckoff for ThePigSite.

The government forecast the US average corn yield at 167.4 bushels per acre, which was below the pre-report expectation of 170 bushels per acre.

The total US corn crop was forecast at a record 14.032 billion bushels, which was below trade expectations of 14.25 billion bushels.

USDA placed new-crop corn carryover at 1.808 billion bushels, which was below an expected 2.0 billion bushels.

Soybean futures were sharply lower in the wake of larger-than-expected ending US soybean stocks as reported by USDA. The Ag Department left its projected 2013-14 crop ending stocks unchanged at 140 million bushels. The trade expected USDA to lower the figure to 136 million bushels.

The government also forecast a larger-than-expected 2014-15 soybean carryover projection, at 430 million bushels, which was around 15 million bushels above expectations. USDA put the 2014 US soybean crop at a record 3.816 billion bushels, which is slightly lower than expectations of 3.823 billion bushels. The US average yield was set at 45.4 bushels per acre, versus trade expectations of 45.6 bushels per acre.

Wheat futures were lower on spillover pressure from soybeans and corn futures, as the USDA report came in about as expected on wheat. USDA forecast the all US wheat crop at 2.03 billion bushels, up slightly from expectations of 2.01 billion bushels. USDA put 2014-15 carryover at 663 million bushels, in line with trade expectations.

ThePigSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Share This

News By

Related News

More News

Our Sponsors


Seasonal Picks

The Commuter Pig Keeper - 5m Books