ANALYSIS - Global pig meat production is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent on the year to 109.3 million tonnes in 2016, according to AHDB Pork analysis of the USDA's latest global outlook report.
Furthermore, the latest forecast is 2 per cent lower than October’s estimate as the outlook for the world’s largest pig meat producer, China, has changed. Having predicted an increase year on year in October, USDA now forecasts a decrease of 3 per cent year on year, to 53.5 million tonnes. The reduction in output is thought to be due to poor producer profitability last year, a slowdown in China’s economic growth and issues surrounding its environmental regulations.
EU pig meat production is expected to exceed October’s forecast by 1 per cent to 23.2 million tonnes but is still down 1 per cent on 2015 as low pig prices caused a contraction to the EU pig herd.
US production is forecast to increase further by 2 per cent on the year to a record level of 11.3 million tonnes. Output from Russia and Brazil is also forecast to increase, by 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.
In other news, Mexico opened its doors to fresh pigmeat from Spain. The EU has been working with third markets to remove technical barriers for trade. With this announcement, it is expected that other EU member states will also be approved for export to Mexico in the coming months.
In disease news, a new outbreak of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea (PED) was confirmed on a grower-to-finish farm in Chatham-Kent, Ontario, Canada.
Also, African Swine Fever continued its spread through Lithuania, with seven wild boars affected.
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