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US Hog Margins

14 October 2011
Genesus - The first power in genetics

US - Margins improved significantly since the middle of September, due to the ongoing combination of higher hog prices and a continued sell-off in both corn and soybean meal, says Doug Lenhart, General Manager of USA Genesus in the latest Genesus Global Market Report.

USDA released two key reports since the middle of the month, the quarterly Hogs & Pigs inventory and the quarterly Grain Stocks. While the hog report was viewed as somewhat bearish, nearby futures prices have traded sharply higher over the past week. In particular, the number of hogs over 180 pounds was 3.4 per cent above last year when the market was only expecting a two per cent increase. Moreover, both the September-November and December-February period farrowing intentions were about one per cent above market expectations and reflect no supply contraction in the first half of 2012.

Meanwhile, corn stocks on 1 September at 1.128 billion bushels were 166 million above the average trade forecast and outside of the range of expectations between 820 million and 1.05 billion bushels. The final ending stocks for the 2010/11 marketing year suggest significant feed demand rationing in the June/July/August quarter, although analysts were confused by this given higher livestock numbers and no evidence of increased wheat feeding during the period.

With forward profit margins now having recovered to new highs well in excess of the 90th percentile, many Genesus clients are looking to increase coverage levels to secure these historically strong margins. In addition, our consultants are also working with clients to adjust existing strategies in light of the margin improvement seen.

  • 4th quarter 2011: High offering $9.18, the low was ($8.23), last week ended with the high of $9.18 and the five-year percentile of 99.9 per cent.
  • 1st quarter 2012: High offering $11.55, the low was ($4.22), last week ended with the high of $11.55 and the five-year percentile of 100.0 per cent.
  • 2nd quarter 2012: High offering $16.70, the low was $2.42, last week ended with the high of $16.70 and the five-year percentile of 98.6 per cent.
The Hog Margin calculation assumes that 73lbs of soybean meal and 4.87 bushels of corn are required to produce 100 lean hog lbs. Additional assumed costs include $40 per cwt for other feed and non-feed expenses. Thank you to Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC (CIH) for the margin data. Please visit www.cihmarginwatch.com to subscribe to the CIH Margin Watch report.
Genesus Global Market Report
Prices for week of 3 October 2011
Country Domestic price
(own currency)
US$
(per pound liveweight)
USA (Iowa-Minnesota) 92.68¢
US$/lb carcass
68.58¢
Canada (Ontario) 1.74
C$/kg carcass
61.70¢
Mexico (DF) 21.27
MXP/kg liveweight
72.59¢
Brazil (south region) 2.48
BRR/kg liveweight
63.33¢
Russia 88
RUB/kg liveweight
$1.21
China 19.06
RMB/kg liveweight
$1.36
Spain 1.20
€/kg liveweight
74.71¢


To find out more about Genesus Genetics, please take the time to visit their website at www.genesus.com .



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