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Latest USDA Hog Data to Pressure Lean Hog Futures Early this Week

30 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - Last Friday's USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report is deemed bearish by traders, which should seriously pressure hog futures prices early this week.

Most categories in Friday's USDA data were higher than expected. The U.S. hog inventory as of September 1, at 68.360 million head, is surprisingly 188,000 head higher than a year-ago. U.S. hog numbers were expected by traders to be around 1 million head fewer than year-ago.

The larger hog numbers were due to a higher-than-expected summer pig crop and a continued rise in the number of pigs per litter.

The bigger-than-expected market hog inventory suggests slaughter will run around one per cent above year-ago through the first quarter of next year.

Based on the pre-report estimates, traders were anticipating U.S. hog slaughter to be one per cent below year-ago levels through that timeframe. U.S. hog farrowing intentions for fall and winter showed producers plan to expand their hog herds.

ThePigSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

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