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Rabobank: predicting China's pork imports

03 November 2017

Pork Quarterly Q4 2017: global pork supply is expected to increase further, mainly driven by China, the US, Canada, and Brazil. While China’s pork imports have slowed down recently, they are likely to pick up again later this year, according to RaboResearch’s latest global update.

According to Chenjun Pan, RaboResearch Senior Analyst – Animal Protein:

The most significant story in global pork markets has been the substantial decline in China’s imports in recent months, which creates a risk of over-supplied global markets 

However, we do expect China’s imports to pick up somewhat over the rest of the year.

While the Rabobank Five-Nation Hog Price Index suggests a stronger pricing trend, the major importing countries will likely maintain steady import growth.

China’s pork farming structure has been impacted by stricter environmental policy enforcement. Despite the exit of many small farms, we maintain our forecast for 2017, with production increasing by 2%. Prices will continue the downward trend, after holding at strong levels in summer. Pork imports were down by 27% in the first eight months, but may rebound over Q4 2017.

China’s import demand has been one area of distortion in global pork markets over the past one to two years, and a diversion in prices for certain cuts has been another.

Justin Sherrard, RaboResearch Global Strategist – Animal Protein, also commented on the rise in demand for pork products in the market:

Pork bellies have reached record levels in the US and some other markets, driven by strong demand, especially from foodservice.

 

As reported by Rabobank in the Pork Quarterly Q4 2017 Report

Top image via Shutterstock



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