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AHDB reports challenging year ahead for Brazil's pig industry

12 January 2018

With two of Brazil's largest export markets looking to expand their own domestic pork production, AHDB predicts an uncertain future for Brazil's export value.

Over the past 10 years or so, Brazil has increased its pork production from around 3 million tonnes per annum (cwe) to over 3.75 million tonnes in 2017. The lion’s share of production is consumed domestically, and up until 2015 around 400-500 thousand tonnes of fresh/frozen pork was exported annually. This increased to 629 thousand tonnes in 2016 and was 593 thousand tonnes in 2017.

In 2017, Russia was once again Brazil’s largest pork market, taking 43% of Brazilian pork exports. Since 2012 Russia’s share of the Brazilian export market has grown from 25%, partly due to Russia’s widely reported ban of pork from many other countries. Interestingly, since 2012, China’s share of Brazilian pork exports has increased from 1% in 2012 to 8% in 2017, peaking at 14% in 2016. This has led to China jumping up to become Brazil’s third largest export market for pork.

AHDB predicts that this relationship is likely to change as both Russia and China seek to increase their own domestic pork production, which means Brazil faces a decrease in export markets. 

Brazil's exports to other countries do not match the scale of exports to Russia and China, meaning Brazil's domestic demand will have to pick up if exports do slow down.

AHDB predicts that higher interest rates for investment and the growth of poultry in Brazil may also hinder the pork industry, despite the positive outlook for the Brazilian economy.

 

As reported by AHDB

For the full report, click here



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