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Farm-Scape, Episode 1160

A University of Missouri Agricultural Economics Professor predicts lower production of pork and competing meats will help drive up the price of live hogs during 2003. 2002 was an unprofitable year for hog producers in both the United States and Canada and those losses are causing some slowdown in production.

Dr. Ron Plain, who's on hand at the Banff Pork Seminar, says it looks like the US will produce about two percent fewer hogs in 2003 and production is slowing in Canada which will mean less pork on the market and higher prices.

"First of all indications are that sow farrowings during the winter and spring will be a little bit lower than what we had a year ago. That's what starts the downward trend as far as the number of hogs that's going to be slaughtered.

Another factor is feed costs are running higher than they have in the last several years. That causes producers to tend to market their hogs a little bit lighter. That also reduces pork production on the market.

Other factors that are important is stuff like competing meats and poultry exports were very disappointing in 2002.

That put a lot of chicken and turkey on US markets that we expected to export and that became a drag on hog prices.

Exports of chicken are expected to improve a bit from last year but the big factor is that we're looking at about half of the normal growth rate anticipated on broiler numbers this year."

Dr. Plain says exports play a major role and, while poultry exports have been disappointing it looks like pork exports from both Canada and the US in 2002 were up a bit from the year previous and the outlook is positive on that score in 2003.

He says exchange rates have been relatively stable in recent months and he expects little change in exchange rates during the next year.

For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane.