Weekly Purcell Report

US - Agricultural US Commodity Market Report by Wayne D. Purcell, Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech.
calendar icon 3 December 2003
clock icon 2 minute read


Need a Product or service?
Animal Health Products
Swine Breeders and Genetics
Pig, Hog Feed and Ingredients
Swine manure, waste and odor
Pig, Hog and Swine Books

As the fundamentals improve, there is renewed enthusiasm surrounding the retailer's move toward featuring of pork.

Lean hog contracts rallied strongly on Friday and Monday but are showing a more negative day in Tuesday's activity. I have been suggesting if we work from the December 2003 futures contract, we need to be thinking about buying back short hedges in the $49 to $50 range. I believe that is going to continue to be a good line of advice.

We are lower Tuesday, and we may dip back down toward the $49 level again on that nearby contract, but I think we are putting in at least a short-term bottom. Thus, I would not want to be on short hedge positions as a producer, and packers and other users of long hedges in this market ought to be thinking about being long and getting long hedges established in the $49 to $50 range on the December.

That level translates to about $56 to $57 in the April 2004 contract where we see substantially better prices and evidence of a price discovery process that sees a brighter supply and demand balance as we move into 2004.


© 2000 - 2023 - Global Ag Media. All Rights Reserved | No part of this site may be reproduced without permission.