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The March 1 Hogs and Pigs report contained few surprises. However, it continues to document the changes occurring in the US Swine industry. Nebraska continues to loose inventory (and market share) in the kept for market category while retaining 5th place in breeding herd inventory.

While I’ve been commenting for many years regarding the lack of reinvestment in finishing facilities by Nebraska producers, the gradual changes in Minnesota’s industry are evident in this report. Like Iowa, Minnesota is gradually becoming a state with more pigs finished than farrowed. Minnesota now has 10.9% of the kept for market inventory and only 10.1% of the breeding herd. Contrast this with Iowa with 27.1% of the kept for market inventory and 17.1% of the breeding herd.

On the other hand, Nebraska had 6.1% of the breeding herd and 4.66% of the kept for market inventory. The 4.66% for the kept for market category compares to 4.65% recorded on September 1, 2002 and December 1, 2003. One must go back to the early 1960’s to find Nebraska’s share of the kept for market this low.

The interdependence of the US and Canadian swine industries is also readily evident in several USDA and Ag Canada reports not included in the quarterly hogs and pigs report. In the following graphs I have included data on the number of feeder pigs imported from Canada, slaughter imports and Canadian inventory trends through their January 1, 2004 report. While US producers are showing restraint regarding breeding herd inventory, the linear correlation for the up trend in the Canadian breeding herd is at 0.97 for the past 4 years. It remains to be seen if their April 1 inventory will show any decline in their breeding herd.

If their April 1 breeding herd inventory remains at the same level as their January 1 inventory (1,627,000 head), the combined March 1 US and April 1 Canadian breeding herd inventory will be 7,542,000. This will be very similar to the March 1/April 1, 2000 combined female inventory. However, an increasing % of the North American breeding herd is now in Canada. In March 1/April 1, 2000, 17.9% of the breeding herd was in Canada. If the Canadian inventory on April 1 is the same as their January 1 inventory, 21.6% of the combined breeding herd will reside in Canada.

As documented by PigCHAMP and other record schemes, Canadian producers are generally considered to be more productive than their US counterparts when it comes to pigs weaned per female per year. This suggests that even if female inventory is similar to 2000 for the combined North American breeding herd, the increased percentage of the herd located in Canada will result in a larger pig crop than the combined pig crop of 2000.

March 1, 2004 Inventory
All states with over 1 million pigs in inventory

Further Information

To view the full report, including tables, please click here. (PDF Format, 11 pages)

Source: National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) - 22nd March 2004