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Global Demand Expected to Drive Hog Prices into the Fall

by 5m Editor
22 July 2004, at 12:00am

CANADA - Farm-Scape: Episode 1564. Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork.

Farm-Scape, Episode 1564

Sask Pork says, with US weekly slaughter numbers for 2004 running about four percent higher than 2003, global demand for pork will need to stay strong to maintain hog prices.

Since late April pork prices have rebounded strongly.

The SPI index 100 weekly pool price peaked at about 192 dollars per hundred kilograms for the week ending May 21st and current prices are ranging from about 170 to 180 dollars.

Sask Pork Industry and Policy Analyst Brad Marceniuk says a combination of factors has contributed to the current higher than average prices and a number of factors will guide prices into the fall.

"Higher pork prices in recent months have been driven by increased global demand for pork with consumers in some countries reducing beef and poultry consumption.

With the North American BSE ban on beef by many countries, there's no North American beef being imported by many countries such as Japan.

Also the bird flu, or avian influenza, has forced millions of chickens to be slaughtered particularly in the Asian countries.

In Japan the consumption of pork was up 45 percent in April while chicken was down nine percent and beef down two percent.

Some of the market factors to keep an eye on over the next couple of months include, is there any changes to the North American beef trade, will there be any import bans lifted for beef?

Also we will need to see what will happen to pork trade with the recent announcement by Japan to put import tariffs on pork.

Japan is a very important market. They represent about 30 percent of the pork that is imported in the world so, of the exporting countries, Japan makes up about 30 percent of the pork that is exported."

Marceniuk says prices typically drop during the fall with higher supplies and lower demand so any changes in the global meat trade or consumer preferences over the coming months will likely determine where prices will go.

He says, right now, it looks like prices for index 100 hogs will range from 150 to 160 dollars per hundred kilograms for August and September falling below 150 dollars into October.

For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane.

5m Editor