Farm-Scape, Episode 1609

Manitoba Pork Council says, although the Canadian swine industry is confident it will ultimately be cleared of unfair trade accusations leveled by American producers, there's a strong likelihood preliminary antidumping duties will be imposed.

The US Department of Commerce is expected to announce its preliminary ruling on whether Canadian live hogs are being dumped into the US October 15th.

If it determines Canadian hogs are being sold into the US at less than the cost of production, preliminary duties could take effect on or about October 20th.

Manitoba Pork Council Chair Karl Kynock says many producers are working out export contracts now and it's important they consider the potential of duties as they make their business decisions.

"We're letting our producers know that the way this is looking that we're going to get hit with a dumping duty.

The thing that's making us look at that is the fact that they considering dumping into the US market that, if you're selling a product there at below your cost of production, that's dumping.

The thing is, as a farmer, we sell a perishable commodity. We don't have a choice of when we sell it.

We're more price takers than price setters so that's out of our control, what price we get sometimes. We won't know what the final numbers are until October 15th but we have a strong understanding it looks like we are headed that way.

In the final injury argument we are very confident that we will win this. We have a very strong argument and are confident that live hogs moving south are a huge benefit to the US producers and their industry partners.

Even if we do get applied with a dumping margin in October, we feel very confident that we win this in the final injury in February."

Kynock says, in the meantime, there's a good chance Canadian exporters will face duties, which means they will required to post bonds at the border when their hogs enter the US.

For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane.