More recent USDA data suggests that since the beginning of June, about 10 percent fewer feeder pigs and early weans were shipped to the U.S. from Ontario border crossing points than during the same time in 2003.

So far the lower export numbers haven't made much of a dent in U.S. production, which remains close to three percent higher than last year's levels.

However, with an average of approximately 1,800 fewer weaners and feeder pigs crossing the border each week from the beginning of March to the end of May, these animals have likely been finished in Ontario or in Quebec.

In trying to determine where these pigs have been finished, it's notable that Statistics Canada's April inventory report found that Ontario's breeding herd had grown by four percent from a year earlier while Quebec's breeding herd remained steady.

Because Quebec market hog supplies are up nearlyseven percent since last year and Ontario supplies have only increased by about two percent, it's likely that many pigs are being shipped from Ontario to be finished in Quebec. Unfortunately, there's no published data tracking interprovincial feeder pig movement.

Overall, with an increased breeding herd and fewer pigs leaving Ontario to be finished in the U.S. the data points to another autumn with plentiful market hog supplies in Ontario and in Quebec.