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Several Factors Expected to Influence Fourth Quarter Live Hog Prices

by 5m Editor
5 October 2004, at 12:00am

CANADA - Farm-Scape: Episode 1615. Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork.

Farm-Scape, Episode 1615

Sask Pork predicts a combination of factors, including global demand for pork, US slaughter numbers and potential antidumping duties on live Canadian hogs, will influence prices in the coming months.

Hog prices continue to be strong, with yesterday's SPI index 100 hogs ranging from 165 to 175 dollars per 100 kilograms.

Sask Pork Industry and Policy Analyst Brad Marceniuk says, while US weekly hog slaughter numbers have been running over two million head during the last few weeks, continued strong demand for pork has kept hog prices strong.

"With nearby lean hog futures continuing to remain strong, pork prices should continue to be good with some seasonal downward trends from October to December. Based on the current lean hog future prices, Saskatchewan 100 index hogs are estimated to range 170 down to 160 dollars per hundred kilograms for October and drop later in the fourth quarter from 160 to 145 dollars per 100 kilograms.

Pork prices should be relatively good over the next few months as long as the demand for pork stays strong and the United States slaughter numbers are not significantly higher than expected.

Overall the main factors affecting strong prices will continue to be strong demand for pork, the Unites States slaughter numbers to be continually consistent, the Canadian dollar and various trade effects, such as this antidumping investigation on live Canadian hogs shipped into the United States.

Depending on the preliminary determination, any potential duties on Canadian live hog exports to the United States would negatively affect the Canadian pork prices. It is expected that Canadian packers would respond by reducing domestic hog prices by the amount of the duty imposed. If a duty was imposed, it could start on October 20, 2004."

Marceniuk says pork prices should remain relatively good over the next few months as long as the demand for pork stays strong and US slaughter numbers are not significantly higher than expected.

For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane.

5m Editor