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2005 U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast Released

by 5m Editor
23 November 2004, at 12:00am

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Agriculture today released its revised quarterly forecast of U.S. agricultural export sales for fiscal year 2005. Sales are forecast to be $56 billion, down from the record of $62.3 billion set in FY 2004. The drop in export sales is mostly due to record U.S. crop production, which mean lower prices for grains, oilseeds and cotton, and increased foreign competition due to larger supplies all around the globe.

USDA

The FY 2005 forecast, if realized, will be the 5th highest year for U.S. agricultural exports. The record year was FY 2004, followed by 1996 at $59.9 billion, 1997 at $57.4 billion and 2003 at $56.2 billion.

Despite the current drop in sales, some product lines are making real advances. Sales of horticulture products will reach a record $13.8 billion, led by tree nut exports at $2 billion. Dairy product sales are unusually strong, and red meat sales are supported by beef sales to Mexico and pork sales to Japan, Mexico and Canada.

NAFTA partners are expected to rank as the United States' top two markets. Canada will remain the No. 1 market for U.S. agricultural products at $9.7 billion, while sales to Mexico of $8 billion are expected to surpass those to Japan of $7.7 billion. The European Union (EU) at $6.5 billion and China at $4.6 billion will round out the top five markets.

Agricultural imports are forecast at $56 billion, continuing a 40-year upward trend that will result in balanced agricultural trade in 2005. The growth in value of agricultural imports since 2002 is largely the result of higher prices of popular value-added products. The rise in food imports is rather broad based, but two-thirds of the gain in value since 2002 is in seven groups. These are essential oils (an ingredient in food and beverage processing), snack foods, wine and beer, red meats, processed fruits and vegetables, fresh vegetables and miscellaneous grocery products. Key suppliers-the EU-25, Mexico, Canada, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Australia- accounted for three-quarters of the larger sales.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service and the World Agricultural Outlook Board release agricultural trade forecasts quarterly. The summary and full report of USDA's Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports may be accessed from the ERS Web site at http://www.ers.usda.gov or the FAS Web site at http://www.fas.usda.gov. The next quarterly report will be issued in February 2005.

Source: USDA - 22nd November 2004

5m Editor