Ron Plain

Hog producers received good news again Friday morning with USDA's increase in the size of the corn and soybean crop for 2004. The estimated size of the 2004 corn crop was up 128 million bushels from the October estimate and up 1.627 billion bushels from the 2003 crop, which was a record high until 2004. The 2004 average yield per acre is an almost unbelievable 160.2 bushels. The 2004 crop is estimated at 11.741 billion bushels.

The November estimate of the soybean crop for 2004 was 3.150 billion bushels, up 43 million bushels from the October estimate and up 696 million bushels from the 2003 crop.

USDA reduced their 2004-05 average price for corn to a midpoint estimate of $1.90 per bushel from $1.95 in October. The current 2004-05 estimate for corn prices is down $0.52 per bushel from the 2003-04 year.

The USDA midpoint estimate of soybean meal price for the 2004-05 marketing year is $160 per ton --- down $5 per ton from October and down about $96 per ton from the 2003-04 year.

These lower feed prices will reduce the feed cost of raising hogs by about $2.50 per cwt for the coming year compared to a year earlier.

Hog slaughter this week continued below a year earlier with an estimated federally inspected slaughter of 2,010 thousand head --- down 5% from a year earlier. This level of slaughter continues to make the September estimates of the market hog inventories look better.

Even though slaughter was down this week from a week earlier, hog prices were pushed some lower as packers cut the kill rate in an effort to improve their margins.

The live prices this Friday morning were up $0.50 to $3.00 per cwt lower than a week earlier, and the 185 pound carcass price with 0.9 - 1.1 inches back fat, 6 square-inch loin 2-inches deep was down $0.51 per cwt from 7 days earlier.

The top live prices for Friday morning were: Peoria $53.00, St Paul $53.00, Sioux Falls $54.00 and interior Missouri $48.75 per cwt. The weighted average 185 pound carcass prices for negotiated hogs this Friday morning by area were: western Cornbelt $75.58, eastern Cornbelt $74.66, Iowa-Minnesota $75.71 and nation $75.03.

Pork product prices this Friday morning were steady to higher than 7 days earlier. The 1/4" trim loin prices at $103.75 per cwt were up $10.66 per cwt from last Friday, 1/4" trim Boston butts at $88.00 per cwt were up $6.45 per cwt, 17-20# hams were up $11.00 per cwt at $92.00 per cwt and 14-16# bellies were not reported this week.

Cash feeder pig prices were steady to a little higher than 2 weeks ago at United Tel-O-Auction. The feeder pig prices by weight groups were: 40-60# $112-124 per cwt, 50-60# $109 per cwt, 60-70# $108-110 per cwt and 70-80# $84 per cwt.