Price summary

Live hog prices in China continued to move lower amid sluggish pork demand in various regions during the week ending Apr 24.

The number of live hogs released into the domestic market is unlikely to change significantly in the near term. Despite the approaching Labour Day holiday in China that falls on May 1, the usual positive effect of festivities on market performance seems to provide little support for the country's currently weak hog market.

Few live hogs were released into the domestic market during the past week amid weak trade, and hog farmers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude for prices to improve.

Market analysis

Hog prices in some areas of Guangxi and Hebei provinces edged higher towards the later part of the week in review.

Due to Russia's Oil-for-Food programme, meat processing enterprises in Guangxi stepped up hog purchases, causing local hog prices in some areas to rise by RMB0.20/kg. But due to a significant build up in inventories, local hog prices were still generally lower.

Trade of live hogs in Hebei has improved due to increased hog deliveries to Beijing. However, its positive effect on local hog prices was insignificant and overall, prices were marginally lower as well.

In major hog production regions, hog farmers suffered losses in the range of RMB50-100/head. Big-scale hog farmers particularly suffered significant losses each month.

Market forecast

In light of the significant build up in domestic hog inventories, the approaching Labour Day holiday is unlikely to significantly drive up China's live hog prices. Thus, live hog prices in China are expected to rise only marginally on improved trade in the week ahead.