Combination of Factors Influence Hogs Prices

CANADA - Farm-Scape: Episode 2161. Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork.
calendar icon 8 June 2006
clock icon 3 minute read
Manitoba Pork Council

Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
and Sask Pork.

Farm-Scape, Episode 2161

Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food predicts the US hog slaughter, demand for pork and the supply of meats in cold storage will be the key factors that will affect live hog prices through the rest of the second and into the third quarter of this year.

While hog prices have been relatively flat and stable over the last two weeks, there has been improvement over the past few days. Yesterday prices for SPI index 100 hogs ranged from 129 to 139 dollars per 100 kilograms.

Livestock Economist Brad Marceniuk notes hog prices have improved with increased demand from seasonality with barbecue season and a reduction in US hog slaughter numbers over the last eight weeks while the drop in the Canadian dollar over the past few days has also been positive.

The key factors that will likely play a significant role are US hog slaughter numbers, the demand for pork and meat in cold storage in the US. Looking at US hog slaughter numbers, continued US hog slaughter numbers below two million head per week and numbers that are relatively close to last years numbers, 2005 numbers, will continue to be positive for hog prices. Increased demand for pork with seasonality and increased exports will be positive also for hog prices.

Total meat in cold storage in the US year over year has increased from 2005 and that has been negative for meat prices. While pork stocks have decreased year over year stocks in beef and in poultry have increased and that has increased the amount of meat in supply and been negative for meat prices.

Marceniuk expects Saskatchewan index 100 hogs to average about 130 to 140 dollars per 100 kilograms for remainder of the second quarter before trending downward into the third quarter to about 120 to 130 dollars per 100 kilograms.

He notes, at current hog prices, most producers are probably running break even to slightly profitable but, if prices do trend downward into the third quarter, they could slip below break even.

For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane.

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