Price summary

Recent outbreaks of pig diseases in various regions have impacted hog trade, prompting many hog traders to lower their prices to move sales. But due to relatively stable hog demand during the approach to China's National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival in October, prices did not fall nationwide.

By the close of the week in review, the epidemics in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces have been brought under control somewhat, with reduced local hog mortality rates reported. Hence, areas where hog inventory levels were low registered stable to marginally higher hog prices.

Market analysis

During the week in review, China's live hog market was characterised by the following:

To beef up epidemic prevention and minimise the impact of diseases on the hog market, China's agricultural department has issued a notice to all highway checkpoints on standard procedures for preventing the spread of animal diseases.

The extent of price movements was relatively more significant in regions seriously hit by the epidemics such as Hunan and Jiangxi.

With Hunan being a major supplier of live hogs to Guangdong province, cross province deliveries of better quality hogs to Guangdong fell only slightly amid strict inspections by local authorities. Additionally, hog traders reported that hog trade in Guangdong has stayed relatively active recently. Hence, previously falling hog prices in Hunan have improved somewhat by the close of the week.

On the other hand, the slightly more serious outbreak situation in Jiangxi led to fewer cross province deliveries from Jiangxi compared with Hunan. This has weighed on Jiangxi's hog prices.

Sporadic outbreaks of pig diseases in other provinces have reduced hog inventory levels in those regions, disrupting procurements by hog traders. But due to stable hog demand during the approach to the National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival, the outbreaks had a relatively smaller impact on local prices.

Market forecast

With a continued increase in pork demand seen in the weeks leading up to the National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival, live hog prices in China should remain firm in the week ahead.

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