Market analysis

During the week in review, China's live hog market was characterised by the following:

The swine fever outbreaks earlier had taken a heavy toll on live hog inventories. High hog mortality rates in both northern and southern regions had led to insufficient numbers of hogs available for release into the market. With the outbreaks somewhat brought under control recently, cross province hog sales from epidemic-hit regions have improved slightly. Hence, hog procurement prices moved higher.

With the cooler weather this week, hog traders have seized the opportunity to step up procurements and hence increase deliveries to major hog consumption regions in the south. Authorities in various provinces have eased restrictions on hogs entering their respective regions, leading to active cross province deliveries from the north to the south.

Cross province deliveries from Hunan and Jiangxi provinces to the Guangdong region have increased, driving up hog prices in other previously epidemic-hit regions as well.

Pork demand continued to pick up following the end of the summer break from school and in the approach to China's National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival in October, driving up hog prices. Pork prices rose by over 10 percent from the earlier period in many major cities.

With hog supplies falling short of demand, farmers were hesitant in releasing their hogs into the market in anticipation of more price gains.

Market forecast

Pork demand is expected to pick up further in the approach to China's National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival. With currently tight hog supplies, farmers are generally reluctant to release their hogs for sale at existing price levels. Hence, more gains in China's hog prices are seen in the week ahead.