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Weekly Roberts Report

by 5m Editor
7 May 2008, at 6:41am

US - Agricultural US Commodity Market Report by Mike Roberts, Commodity Marketing Agent, Virginia Tech.

LEAN HOGS on the CME were up on Monday. The MAY’08LH contract closed at $74.975/cwt, up $1.575/cwt but $0.775/cwt higher than last week. JUNE’08LH futures were up $1.250/cwt closing at $73.20/cwt but $2.250/cwt lower than last Monday. Short covering, fund buying, and declining corn prices were supportive. Traders spread June/July to counter fund spreading of July/June. Cash prices were steady to higher in some spots. USDA on Friday put the pork cutout value at $75.19/cwt, up $0.81/cwt. Packer demand was steady on last week’s USDA announcement the government would buy up to $50 million for the child nutrition and other food assistance programs. Demand is expected to remain steady to firm all week. According to HedgersEdge.com, the estimated average plant margin was a negative $0.45/head, compared to a negative $1.30/head last Monday. The latest CME Lean Hog index was placed at $73.61/cwt, up $0.34/cwt. It might be a good idea to keep market hogs sold as soon as they are ready. Pricing near term corn inputs might not be a bad idea either.

CORN on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down on Monday. The MAY’08 contract finished at $5.820/bu, off 20.0¢/bu and 18.0¢/bu lower than a week ago. The DEC’08 contract closed down 16.6¢/bu at $6.126/bu and 17.6¢/bu lower than last Monday. Profit taking, concerns about dropping ethanol subsidies, and an outlook for better planting weather pressured prices. Those who make laws in Washington are reported to want to freeze biofuel production due to rising food and commodity prices. The farther out from May 1 that corn is planted the less likely to have high yields. If planting doesn’t get going corn acres will be switching to soybean acres; which is bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans. USDA reported late on Monday that 27% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted compared to the 59% average this time of year. Exports have been sluggish. Hopefully 60% of the ’08 crop was priced last week. Market volatility is still a given for corn.

SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) declined on Monday. The MAY’08 contract finished at $12.730/bu, off 19.4¢/bu from last week and 10.4¢/bu lower than a week ago. The NOV’08 soybean contract ended at $12.154/bu, off 3.0¢/bu but 19.0¢/bu higher than last Monday’s close. The market traded on hopes that soybean producers in Argentina were near agreement over their strike. However, late in the day, news wires carried the report that Argentine farmers were still resistant to terms over soybean export taxes that triggered the strike in the first place. Argentinean officials opened up beef exports and announced timeline of producer payments trying to ease tensions but producers continued their demand that the tax policy change or they would resume the strike in full force that ended last Friday. Slow planting progress for the U.S. corn crop weighed on prices as more corn producers are turning to full season soybeans. So far the U.S. soybean crop is getting planted. USDA said that 5% of the U.S. crop has been planted vs. a 5-year average of 14%. Funds began trimming bullish positions in soybeans late in trading. Prices might rebound amid the South American Farmer determination to continue their strike. Exporters are waiting on news of soybean availability before completing orders. The next big news will be USDA’s World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates. Most likely soybean trade will be choppy at best this week. Hopefully up to 40% of the ’08 crop, as well as 10% of the ’09 crop got priced.

WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) slowed on Monday. The MAY’08 contract closed at $7.924/bu, off 3.4¢/bu and 33.6¢/bu lower than a week ago. The JULY’08 contract closed at $8.054/bu, down 3.4¢/bu and 35.6¢/bu lower than last Monday. Wheat prices were supported by export expectations and concerns for more drought in Australia. The Australian weather bureau stated in its last report that several years of more-thannormal rainfall were needed to offset existing conditions. Global stocks are still tight. USDA put wheatinspected- for-export at 19.548 mi bu vs. expectations for between 15-20 mi bu. There was some fund activity widening bearish positions in CBOT wheat. It might be a good idea to hold off pricing anymore wheat.

5m Editor