CME: While Pork Prices Go Up, Cattle Prices Go Down
US - CME's Daily Livestock Report for 18th July, 2008.The nearby lean hog futures closed the week at $76.9 /cwt, almost 200 points higher than a week ago and about 600 points higher than where it was in early July.
E-Livestock Volume | 18-Jul | 17-Jul | 11-Jul |
---|---|---|---|
LE (E-Live Cattle): | 10,702 | 26,323** | 16,755 |
GF (E-Feeder Cattle): | 1,166 | 839 | 1,331 |
HE (E-Lean Hogs): | 13,833 | 19,932 | 16,397 |
** New Globex Live Cattle Record |
Strong exports continue to boost US pork values. The May report
showed that pork exports for that month just about doubled compared
to the previous year and current prices for some key items
point to very strong export sales in June and July. Despite hog
slaughter for the week at 2.145 million head, 9.5% higher than a
year ago, the pork cutout was $82.3 /cwt for the week, 9.3% higher
than a year ago, an indication that pork demand is very strong.
While prices for a number of pork items are up significantly
compared to a year ago, much of the support for the
pork cutout is coming from two items, pork trimmings and
hams, items that are in great demand in a number of growing
export markets.
Ham prices for the week were as much as 47.3%
compared to the average July price a year ago (heavy ham price)
while pork trimmings were up as much as 54.9% (fat trim, comparison
vs. July 2007 avg. price). The strength in ham and trimming
prices bodes well for the pork market later this year. Much
of the speculation among market analysts has centered on the
apparent dichotomy between relatively high futures prices for Q4
of this year and the expectation for all time record supplies.
Last summer, we questioned whether the premiums we were seeing in
the market for the fall and winter were sustainable given the
weak performance of ham prices at the time, an item that generally
is counted on to carry overall pork values during the holidays.
This year, the situation appears to be significantly different and,
if current export levels are maintained, we could see hog prices
hold up much better than many expect, even with record pork output.
Cattle prices were lower for the week but remain
much higher than year ago levels. News that S. Korea has
resumed importing US beef failed to generate much enthusiasm
as the market will probably need to see more than a few weeks of
uninterrupted trade before it begins to incorporate this factor into
its overall assessment of beef export demand for later this year.
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