CME: Highlights of Latest USDA Release

by 5m Editor
16 September 2008, at 12:15pm

US - CME's Daily Livestock Report for 15th September 2008.

USDA released its latest beef, pork and poultry estimates on Friday, September 12, with only a few minor changes from the previous report. Below are some of the highlights from this latest release:

Total US beef production for 2008 is currently estimated to be 26.790 billion pounds, 267 million pounds or 1% more than a year ago. A large part of the reason for the increase in production is the sharp rise in US beef and dairy cow slaughter, which has boosted overall beef output since Q2. But despite the increase in domestic production, the reduction in beef imports and higher export volume has effectively reduced the amount of beef available for consumption in the US domestic market. Beef imports for 2008 are currently estimated to be 2.553 billion pounds, some 500 million pounds or 16.3% less than in 2007.

As for exports, USDA increased its estimate from the previous month and expects US beef exports in 2008 to reach 1.841 billion pounds, 407 million pounds or 28.3% more than a year ago. The combination of higher exports and smaller imports will more than offset the increase in beef production this year, causing overall domestic disappearance to decline some 609 million pounds. Beef production next year is expected to decline moderately from 2008 levels and with beef exports expected to continue to increase, domestic beef disappearance in 2009 is currently forecast to decline another 105 million pounds, or 0.3%. In addition to looking at net declines in beef disappearance, one also has to account for population growth. USDA currently estimates that per capita beef consumption in 2008 is expected to be 3.1% lower than a year ago and then decline another 1.3% in 2009. As the chart below shows, beef per capita consumption is expected to show an 8% decline since 2000.

Pork output in 2008 is expected to be 1.533 billion pounds larger than the previous year but all of the increase (and then some) will be absorbed by export markets, with US pork exports in 2008 expected to be up 2.3 million pounds or 73%. Per capita pork consumption this year is currently expected to be 5.7% lower than a year ago and is currently forecast to decline another 1.3% in 2009.

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5m Editor