Hog slaughter for the week was 2.335 million head, 4.08% higher than a year ago and another all time high slaughter record for this time of year.

Hog slaughter is currently estimated to remain above year ago levels through the end of the fourth quarter but the rate of increase will slow down given comparisons to the all time record highs established last year. USDA will release its estimated inventory of hogs and pigs as of September 1 next Friday and we will provide both a review of pre-report trade estimates as well as an analysis of the report results next week.

Critical especially will be the size of the US breeding herd as well as sow farrowings in the most recent quarter. As the attached table shows, sow slaughter year to date is running just slightly below 9% above year ago levels. Sow liquidation accelerated in Q2 as corn prices rose sharply. For the period Apr - Jun, US sow slaughter was 100,000 head (+12.3%) higher. Another trend developing in recent months has been the decline in hog carcass weights, which should also help limit pork production in Q4. Hog carcass weights for the last reported week were down 2% from a year ago.