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USDA's Adjustments to Pork Forecasts

by 5m Editor
16 September 2008, at 10:30am

US - USDA has reduced its 2008 pork production forecast because, so far in the third quarter, market hogs have been coming into slaughter at a slower pace and at lighter weights than expected.

The revised estimate is for commercial pork production in 2008 to tally 23.476 billion pounds, down from August's estimate of 23.556 billion pounds.

USDA dropped its 2009 pork production forecast to 22.98 billion pounds from its August forecast of 23.025 billion pounds. Officials cite the continuation of lighter carcass weights for the production adjustment.

As for hog prices, USDA now looks for third-quarter hog prices (live equivalent 51/52 percent lean) to average $56 to $57 per hundredweight. That is based on continuation of "strong demand" according to the agency. Pork Magazine says that for the year, USDA expects hog prices to average $49 to $50, which is $1 higher than the August estimate.

For 2009, USDA held its average hog price forecast unchanged at $51 to $56 per hundredweight.

5m Editor