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Global Pork Production Forecast to be Up in 2010

by 5m Editor
5 June 2010, at 8:27am

US - There are two major pork producing regions in the world: China and everybody else, write Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes.

China is expected to account for 49.4 per cent of 2010 world pork production. USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service is forecasting world pork production will be up 1.7 per cent this year thanks to a projected 3.5 per cent increase in China. USDA is forecasting 2010 pork production outside China will be down 0.2 per cent compared to last year.

The FAS expects the amount of pork moving in international trade will be up 2-4 per cent this year. They are forecasting increased pork imports by each of our top three foreign customers - Japan, Mexico and Canada.

The US is the world's largest pork exporter. The FAS expects US pork exports to be up 5.7 per cent this year. They are forecasting pork export increases of less than 1 per cent for both the European Union and Canada, the world's second and third largest pork exporters. The number four exported, Brazil, is expected to increase its pork exports by 12 per cent.

The financial crisis in Europe has caused the dollar to strengthen rapidly in recent days making exporting US pork more of a challenge.

USDA's Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $85.37/cwt, down $2.58 from the previous Thursday and at the lowest level since April 16. Pork cutout has dropped $6.44 since its peak on May 14. A dip in cutout at this time of year is not unusual. The quick spring run up in pork prices often slows retail pork movement in early summer.

The national weighted average carcass price for negotiated hogs Friday morning was $74.11/cwt, $1.14 lower than the previous Friday. Regional average prices on Friday morning were: eastern corn belt $72.74, western corn belt $75.87, and Iowa-Minnesota $75.63/cwt. The top live hog price Friday at Sioux Falls was $55.50/cwt, down 50 cents from the previous Friday. Peoria topped at $51 on Friday and Zumbrota, MN had a top price of $54. The interior Missouri live top Friday was $55/cwt, 75 cents lower than the previous Friday.

This week's hog slaughter totaled 1.791 million head, down 6.9 per cent from the week before, and down 14.4 per cent compared to the same week last year. The big drop in slaughter was due to Monday's Memorial Day holiday.

The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending 22 May was 201 pounds, the same as the week before and up 1 pound compared to a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights last week averaged 270.8 pounds, up 0.7 pounds compared to a year earlier.

The June lean hog futures contract ended the week at $79.05/cwt, down $2.80 from the previous Friday. The July contract settled at $79.72, down $2.88 for the week. August closed the week $2.03 lower at $80.77/cwt and October ended the week at $74.07/cwt.