Higher Hog Prices Forecast by Purdue Economist

by 5m Editor
29 November 2010, at 10:38am

US - Hog producers have been feeling the bite of losses once again this fall, but Purdue University Extension economist Chris Hurt thinks there is reason for some optimism.

For starters, Professor Hurt says hog prices are probably at their seasonal lows in late November as consumers are buying their Thanksgiving turkey rather than pork. Second, he says lower corn and meal prices provide an opportunity to lock in feed prices at levels that were not available a few weeks ago.

Professor Hurt expects first quarter hog prices to average near 55 dollars per live hundredweight, with second and third quarter prices stretching to 62 and 61 dollars, respectively. Fourth-quarter prices are expected to drop to the mid-to-low 50's, according to BrownfieldAgNews.

Professor Hurt's estimated returns per head, by quarter, for 2011 are: minus four dollars in the first quarter; plus 14 dollars in the second quarter; plus 16 dollars in the third quarter; and plus one dollar in the fourth quarter, for a 2011 average near seven dollars per head.