CME: Livestock and Poultry Reports to be Released
US - Friday is another big report day for USDA with three reports that are of particular interest to livestock and poultry markets being released, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.
27 June 2012
3 minute read
The Grains Stocks and
Acreage reports will be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT while the
quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released at 3:00 p.m.
EDT.
DowJones released today the results of its pre-report
surveys of analysts regarding all three reports. The results appear
at right. A few noteworthy items among the analysts’ expectations
are:
- A continuation of the slow growth of the U.S. swine breeding
herd. The average estimate of +0.7 per cent from one year
ago would be the largest year-on-year growth rate since
March 2008 but is only 0.1 per cent higher than the actual rate
from the March report. Should the herd actually be 0.7 per cent
larger, it would number 5.844 million head, 41,000 more
than one year ago and the largest since December 2009.
- Continued growth in the market herd both in absolute numbers
and relative to the breeding herd. 1.3 per cent more market
hogs on 1 June would peg the inventory at 60.291 million,
the larges 1 June market herd since 2009.
- Farrowings and farrowing intentions remain low relative to
the breeding herd. This follows a pattern across the past
few Hogs and Pigs Reports — a pattern that we still do not
think characterizes today’s efficient hog farms.
- An expected slowing in litter size growth. The 1.3 per cent increase would be lower than last quarter’s 1.7 per cent and much lower than the 2 per cent average of the past 4 years. But survey respondents have consistently expected that trend to slow. It hasn’t yet but probably must at some point.
- Analysts expect only a slight gain — just under 100,000 —
in corn acres versus the Prospective Plantings report numbers
back in March. Mild weather, an early start to planting
and a record-fast pace had many expecting
significantly more corn acres at one point.
- 1.67 million more soybean acres. The soybean
market staged a furious fight for acres
this spring and early wheat harvests have
encouraged what may be a record amount
of double cropping. Now if it just rains!
- Lower corn and wheat stocks, year-on-year, as of June 1. The reductions are expected to be 13 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively.
