Hog Outlook: International Pork Trade Positive

US - International pork trade continues to be positive for the hog market. US pork exports in October were up 2.2 per cent and imports were down 3.7 per cent compare to 12 months earlier, write Ron Plain and Scott Brown, University of Missouri.
calendar icon 17 December 2012
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For the first 10 months of 2012, pork exports were up 7.1 per cent. It looks like 2012 will be the 19th year in the last 21 with a new record for pork exports. The biggest foreign customers for US pork thus far in 2012 are Japan, Mexico, China, Canada, South Korea, Russia and Australia, respectively. These seven countries account for 87 per cent of U.S. pork exports.

Pork imports during January-October were up 0.6 per cent from a year ago with 78 per cent of our pork imports coming from Canada, 9 per cent from Denmark and 4 per cent from Poland. Through October, exports have taken 23.4 per cent of US pork production and imports equaled 3.4 per cent of production.

Russia has announced plans to require testing of imported beef and pork for the widely used feed additive ractopamine and to bar entry to those meats that test positive. Through October, 0.7 per cent of US beef production and 1.3 per cent of pork production has been shipped to Russia.

Through October, the US has imported 4,040,475 weaner- feeder pigs from Canada and 731,938 other hogs. Live hog imports are down 12,325 head (0.3 per cent) compared to the same period last year. Through October, 2012 retail pork demand was down 0.7 per cent, export demand was up 0.9 per cent, and live hog demand was down 0.5 per cent.

Hog and pork prices are lower this week. The national average negotiated carcase price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $78.56/cwt, down $3.29 from last Friday. The eastern corn belt was $6.12 lower than last Friday at $75.88/cwt. Both the western corn belt and Iowa-Minnesota had an morning price average price of $82.50/cwt. Peoria had a top live price this morning of $52 and Zumbrota had a live top today of $55/cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs Friday was $57.75/cwt, down $2.25 from the previous Friday.

The Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $83.83/cwt, down $1.32 from the previous Thursday. Belly prices are higher, but hams, loins and butts are lower. The pork cutout value is $6.91/cwt lower than a year ago.

Hog slaughter this week totaled 2.304 million head, down 2.5 per cent from the week before and down 1.9 per cent compared to the same week last year. The average hog carcase price is 93.7 per cent of the cutout value, which is high for this time of year. That is one of the reasons that Saturday hog slaughter is down 52,000 head (25 per cent) from a week ago. The average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 274.9 pounds, 0.3 pounds below a week earlier and down 1.2 pounds from a year ago. This was the eleventh consecutive week with weights under the year-ago level.

Friday's close for the December lean hog futures contract was $82.00/cwt, down 30 cents from the previous Friday. February hog futures ended the week $1.93 higher at $85.40/cwt. April hogs settled at $90.40/cwt; June at $99.85/cwt.

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