Canadian Hog Markets

CANADA - As we begin the New Year we continue to do what we all do, look to the future, particularly in our business the markets, writes Bob Fraser, Genesus Ontario.
calendar icon 11 January 2013
clock icon 4 minute read

Canada – Peering into the New Year

Will they go up? Will they go down? What about feed, corn, soybean meal, will it be up, down or sideways? And who would have ever thought not long ago that we would have to pay attention to such things as the price of crude oil per barrel, as it bears on ethanol and ultimately corn and DDGS. Also in Canada because of our closer economic relationship to the US, exchange rate is another very important dynamic in driving overall margins. So we all spend a great deal of time looking at all these factors and speculating to their directions and effects to the industry’s wellbeing going forward. This commentary and I expect all future Genesus Market Commentaries will continue to primarily do that. However as we begin a New Year and peer into the future, which we can’t see (which is probably a good thing) and perhaps reflect on the past year I will suggest we consider that we do it in the following context.

I have the great pleasure in my job to meet many CEOs & Presidents of multi-million dollar operations at their kitchen tables in their homes because for the bulk of my clientele of that’s what doubles as their “head office“. With these opportunities you get great insight into their families and their values and beliefs. Recently I was struck with one particular call where there was a beautiful picture of a rural farmstead from the past with the following inscription. “Write your troubles in the sand; carve your blessings in stone“. Probably an excellent filter as we look both forward and back at the turning of the year and one I expect a great many pig producers already use. That’s why they’re so resilient!

Wishing you & yours the most Happy & Prosperous New Year

If we take a look at the OMAFRA Weekly Hog Market Facts compiled by John Bancroft, Market Strategies Program Lead, Stratford OMAFRA john.bancroft@ontario.cawe see some further improvement of estimated margin after feeder pig and feed for the last five weeks from –($6.30) to $10.38

The Ontario Market 7-Dec-12 14-Dec-12 21-Dec-12 28-Dec-12 4-Jan-13
Average price ($/ckg, DW total value) $169.89 $173.42 $168.74 $170.59
Low price ($/ckg, DW total value) $152.46 $155.50 $152.02 $154.10
High price ($/ckg, DW total value) $189.27 $201.30 $198.34 $194.29
Weekly Average Dressed Weight (kg) 97.47 97.47 97.23 97.73
Market Hogs Sold 97,229 95,146 97,884 54,598
Market Hogs Sold - % of Previous Year 105% 99% 111% 82%
100% Formula Price ($/ckg, 100 index) $151.05 $149.83 $146.32 $147.82 $147.93
Previous Year - 100% Formula Price ($/ckg, 100 index) $158.41 $160.14 $155.74 $151.46 $150.54
Weaned Pig Value (C$/pig) - Formula Value $39.27 $38.96 $38.04 $38.43 $38.46
Feeder Pig Value (C$/pig) - Formula Value $62.31 $61.80 $60.36 $60.98 $61.02
Est. Grow Finish Feed Cost for Current Week $96.66 $95.51 $94.35 $93.49 $91.38
Est. Margin after Feeder Pig and Feed ($6.30) ($2.14) $0.02 $8.16 $10.38
The Ontario Feed Market (Friday's Closing Prices) 7-Dec-12 14-Dec-12 21-Dec-12 28-Dec-12 4-Jan-13
Chicago Corn (US $/bushel) - Mar'13 $7.3725 7.30.75 $7.0200 $6.9400 $6.8025
Chicago Soybeans (US $/bushel) - Jan'13 $14.7225 $14.9600 $14.3075 $14.2400 $13.6725
Soybean Meal ($/tonneHamilton + $20) $546.91 $561.36 $561.36 $561.36 $481.55
Old Crop Corn ( farm price - $/tonne) based on Mar'13 $266.62 $264.06 $252.74 $249.59 $250.09
Western Ontario feed Corn ($/tonne) - based on Dec'13 $280.40 $279.02 $268.89 $265.74 $260.72
New Crop Corn ( farm price - $/tonne) based on Dec'13 $223.51 $219.67 $211.31 $208.55 $197.53
DDGS FOB Chatham/Sarnia/Almer ($/tonne) $267.50 $287.50 $302.50 $302.50 $292.50

Genesus Global Market Report
Prices for the week of December 31, 2012
Country Domestic price
(own currency)
US dollars
(Liveweight a lb)
USA (Iowa-Minnesota) 81.18¢ USD/lb carcass 60.07¢
Canada (Ontario) 1.48¢ CAD/kg carcass 54.46¢
Mexico (DF) 24.57 MXN/kg liveweight 87.52¢
Brazil (South Region) 3.28 BRL/kg liveweight 73.00¢
Russia 70 RUB/kg liveweight $1.03
China 14 RMB/kg liveweight $1.02
Spain 1.303 EUR/kg liveweight 77.17¢
Vietnam 39,000 VND/kg liveweight 85.01¢
South Korea 4,500 KRW/kg liveweight $1.92
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