CME: Sept-Nov Hog Slaughter Higher Than Normal
US - On Friday's Hogs and Pigs report, we realize that slaughter is the only output measure that actually gets counted and is, thus, the ultimate measure of how many hogs exist, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.
4 January 2013
2 minute read
It is also driven by the number of
hogs born and surviving in some previous period. But differences between
the two flows (pigs being born and pigs being slaughtered in a
later time period) can be impacted by changes in the rates of flow.
We raise the question, of course, in light of USDA’s big revision
in the March-May pig crop (+636,000 head) last week. We realize
that September-November slaughter was higher than normal but prolonged summer
heat likely pushed some pigs from slaughter in August to slaughter in
September.
In addition, producers’ well-documented efforts to reduce
feed expenditures by getting pigs to market earlier likely pulled pigs
forward — including from December to November. The 636,000 head
revision represents only 1.44 days worth of slaughter.
Was the number
of pigs farrowed in the spring quarter really larger or did they just flow to
slaughter differently? Part of that answer will lie in Dec-Feb slaughter
relative to the June-August pig crop.
