US Production

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA forecasts higher production of total red meat and poultry in the US for both 2013 and 2014 at 93,285 million pounds and 93,715 million pounds, respectively.

For 2013, small changes are made to the fourth quarter of 2013 for the major species, based on slaughter data to date, taking the pig meat production estimate to 23,220 million pounds. The forecast for 2014 has been raised to 23,905 million tonnes, based on an upward revision of hog carcass weights.

Pig Meat Trade Estimates

Pork imports are raised for both 2013 and 2014, based on estimates for the third quarter and early fourth quarter and expectations for slightly stronger imports in 2014. The latest estimate for 2013 is now 876 million pounds, rising to 880 million pounds for next year.

Pork exports have been revised down to 4,974 million pounds for 2013, and to 5,180 million pounds for 2014, based on slightly weaker demand in Asia.

Pork Price Forecasts

Hog prices for 2013 have been lowered as fourth-quarter prices have been slightly weaker than expected, averaging $64.40 per cwt for the year. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged at between $59 and $63 per cwt.