Hog Outlook: Hog Sale Cash Receipts Down From 2014 High

US - US cash receipts from hog sales totaled $21 billion dollars last year. That was down $5.5 billion from the 2014 record, write Ron Plain and Scott Brown, Ag Economics, MU.
calendar icon 3 May 2016
clock icon 4 minute read

According to USDA's annual publication, Meat Animals Production, Distribution, and Income, five states had more than a billion dollars in hog sales in 2015: Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, Illinois and Indiana. At $7.5 billion, Iowa had nearly three times the cash receipts as number two Minnesota. Missouri ranked sixth at $939 million in cash receipts from hog sales.

There were 614 million pounds of pork in cold storage at the end of March. That was 2.4 per cent less than the month before and 8.7 per cent less than a year earlier. The amount of beef in cold storage at the end of March was down 3 per cent year-over-year, but frozen chicken stocks were up 4.6 per cent.

Corn planting is well ahead of normal. USDA's weekly Crop Progress report says that 30 per cent of corn acres were planted by April 24. That compares to 13 per cent a week earlier and 16 per cent on that date last year. The five-year average is 16 per cent planted by April 24.

Cash hog prices were higher this week. The national negotiated barrow and gilt carcass price averaged $68.42/cwt on Thursday, up $3.10 from a week earlier, but down $4.54 from a year ago. The May futures price is well above the cash price, so look for higher cash prices in the week ahead.

The national negotiated barrow and gilt price averaged $69.23/cwt on the morning report today, up $5.45 from a week earlier. Both the western corn belt and Iowa-Minnesota averaged $70.68/cwt this morning. There was no negotiated price quote this morning for the eastern corn belt.

The top hog price today at Peoria was $42/cwt, up $2 from last Friday. The top price for interior Missouri live hogs was $47.25/cwt, up $3.00 from a week ago.

Friday morning's pork cutout value was $81.77/cwt FOB the plants. That is up $3.10 from the week before and up $7.85 from a year ago. Loin and ham prices were higher this week; but bellies were lower.

This morning's national negotiated hog price was 84.7 per cent of the cutout value.

This week's hog slaughter was 2.139 million head, down 4.6 per cent from last week and down 0.6 per cent from the same week last year.

The average slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 284.0 pounds, down 0.1 pound from the week before, but up 2.2 pound from a year ago. That is the biggest year-over-year increase in slaughter weight since February 2015.

The May hog futures contract gained $2.20 this week to close at $77.90/cwt. The June lean hog futures contract ended the week at $81.70/cwt, up $2.875 from the preceding Friday. Today, July hogs settled at $81.775/cwt, up $2.30 compared to the previous Friday.

The May corn futures contract settled at $3.9025 per bushel today. That is up 18.5 cents from last week. July corn ended the week at $3.9175/bu., up 16.25 cents from last Friday.

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