Hog Outlook: More Pork Coming to US from Europe, Less from Canada

US - US pork imports totalled 90.2 million pounds during May. That is up 10.5 per cent compared to May 2015, write Ron Plain and Scott Brown, Ag Economics, MU.
calendar icon 12 July 2016
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US pork exports totalled 458.8 million pounds in May, up 4.9 per cent compared to a year earlier, and the most for any month since April 2015.

May imports equalled 4.6 per cent of production. Pork exports during May equalled 23.5 per cent of US pork production, the highest for any month since June 2014.

There were 473,541 hogs imported in May, up 12.9 per cent compared top May 2015.

January-May pork imports were up 4.4 per cent with less pork coming to the US from Canada, but more coming from Europe.

Pork exports were up 1.2 per cent during the first five months of 2016 with a bit less going to Japan, Mexico and Canada, but a lot more going to China and Hong Kong. US pork shipments to China and Hong Kong were up 137 per cent compared to a year earlier.

USDA's Crop Progress report says that 75 per cent of corn acres were in good to excellent conditions on July 3. That is the same as a week earlier and 6 points higher than on that date last year.

Hog prices were lower last week. The national negotiated barrow and gilt carcass price averaged $77.19/cwt on Thursday, down $1.16 from a week earlier and down 16 cents from a year ago.

The national negotiated barrow and gilt price averaged $75.79/cwt on the morning report on Friday, down $1.17 from a week earlier. There were no regional negotiated price quotes on Friday morning for the eastern corn belt, western corn belt or Iowa-Minnesota.

The top hog price on Friday at Peoria was $49/cwt, unchanged from a week earlier. Friday's top price for interior Missouri live hogs was $55.50/cwt, the same as the previous Friday.

Friday morning's pork cutout value was $89.45/cwt FOB the slaughter plants. That is up 12 cents from the week before and up $8.65 from a year ago. Ham and belly prices were higher than the previous Friday, loins lower. Friday morning's national negotiated hog price is 84.7 per cent of the cutout value.

Last week started with a holiday so slaughter only totalled 1.826 million head, down 13.7 per cent from the previous week and down 12.0 per cent from the same week last year.

The average slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 276.7 pounds. That is down 1.1 pounds from the week before and down 2.3 pound from the same week last year.

The July lean hog futures contract ended the week at $80.05/cwt, down $2.625 from the preceding Friday. On Friday, August hogs settled at $78.825/cwt, down $5.125 from the previous Friday. The October contract settled at $68.60, down $3.75 for the week.

Corn futures fell for the third week in a row. The July contract lost 3.25 cents last week to close the week at $3.4975 per bushel. September futures closed 5 cents lower than the previous Friday at $3.55/bu. December corn futures ended the week at $3.625/bushel, down 4.5 cents from last Friday.

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