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Hog Markets Cautiously Optimistic Heading Toward Start of NAFTA Renegotiation

11 August 2017, at 12:00am

CANADA - The Director of Risk Management with [email protected] Marketing Services says the pork industry remains cautiously optimistic as Canada, the United States and Mexico prepare to begin renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, according to Bruce Cochrane.

The first round of discussions aimed at modernizing the North American Free Trade Agreement is set to take place 16 to 20 August in Washington.

Tyler Fulton, the Director of Risk Management with [email protected] Marketing Services, observes we haven't seen anything just yet to affect the futures market.

Tyler [email protected] Marketing Services

There's always some speculation as to whether things are going to go well or not so well.

I would say that the market is probably waiting or traders are waiting till closer to the end of this month when negotiations start to really start working in some scenarios.

I would say, at this point, the market or the hog industry is likely cautiously optimistic that we will not see any significant changes to the trading relationship as a result of this renegotiation but it's a risk and risk tends to be worked into a market by moving prices in one direction or another.

I think the scenario is the trading relationship, on the pork side anyway, can't get a whole lot better than it is so that risk is that the US would struggle in moving as much pork as they have into Canada and to Mexico which would put pressure on some of the deferred futures months.

Mr Fulton says, at this stage, the pork industry remains hopeful and will be watching as developments unfold.

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