Jim Long Pork Commentary: Some market observations

Are US hog weights starting to go down?
calendar icon 21 March 2018
clock icon 2 minute read

Last week everyday, Monday toThursday, had lower weights then the week before. To get stronger hog prices we must get to lower weights and/or lower hog marketing numbers. We believe we are near the low price for winter-spring

US pork cut-outs last week were at 72.50 ¢ lb. To get hog prices up from the mid 60’s, pork cut-outs need to go higher. They will go higher as hog numbers and/or weights decline

Small pig prices remain strong. US average Cash early weans were $50.44 last week. Strong prices as early weans are for early full marketing. It appears demand for small pigs is quite positive for the sellers

Summer lean hog futures are around 80¢ lb; at one point they were in the 85¢ lb range.We still expect the summer market to rebound and reach 90¢ lb. Reason – hog supply will seasonally decline, plenty of packer capacity will lead to next to zero gross packer margins.

Domestic and Export pork demand remains good.

Our scenario could be wrong but its what we think.

This coming week we will be in Russia. We will report our Russia market observations in next weeks commentary.

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