First ASF outbreak in Guangdong may push up market prices further

Guangdong is a major pork consuming region and heavily relies on supplies from other provinces. The first outbreak of the disease reported there will likely further push up prices in the region, analysts said.
calendar icon 19 December 2018
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China confirmed on today (19 December) the first African swine fever outbreak in southern Guangdong province, as the highly contagious disease continues to spread through the world's largest hog herd.

The outbreak in Zhuhai city in Guangdong province killed 11 animals in a slaughterhouse, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on its website.

Hog prices in Guangdong province were around 16 yuan ($2.32) per kg on Wednesday, up 10 percent since early August, when the country reported its first African swine fever outbreak, according to data provided by consultancy China-America Commodity Data Analytics, due to a ban on live hog transport.

"Supplies in Guangdong have been quite tight already and prices are expected to jump in the long term in the region following the new outbreak," said Yao Guiling, an analyst with the consultancy.

"In the very short term, prices might drop, as more farmers might rush to send their pigs to slaughter following the outbreak," said Yao.

Zhuhai is about 3,000 km from Shenyang in Liaoning province, where the country's first outbreak of the disease was found.

China has reported some 90 cases since then. Beijing banned transport of live pigs from regions found with outbreaks and neighbouring provinces, in an effort to contain spread of the disease. The disease is deadly for pigs but does not harm humans.

The table below shows the number of cases by province, according to data reported by the ministry.

($1 = 6.8963 Chinese yuan renminbi)

As reported by Hallie Gu and Tom Daly

Emily Houghton

Editor, The Pig Site

Emily Houghton is a Zoology graduate from Cardiff University and was the editor of The Pig Site from October 2017 to May 2020. Emily has worked in livestock husbandry, and has written, conducted and assisted with research projects regarding the synthesis of welfare and productivity of free-range food species.

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