Poultry takes the lead in IPC outlook

Poultry is positioned to become the world’s most consumed meat protein in 2019 as pork supply shortages heighten.

Pork to stabilise by 2021

Economists at the meeting agreed that poultry consumption will surpass pork consumption on a worldwide basis in 2019. McCracken termed her outlook for a 30 percent decline in production in China and a 14 percent decline in world production as “conservative,” saying the declines may be deeper. “Poultry consumption will indeed surpass that of pork in 2019, and pork will be unlikely to recoup its leadership position,” she said.

Further declines in world pork production of around 3 percent in 2020 are in McCracken’s forecast as Asia loses more animals and expansion in other regions not in place by then.

“Stabilisation will begin in 2021 and a more modest rebound of 1 percent to 2 percent in volumes in 2022-2027. Environmental and slaughter constraints are likely to limit the size and speed of expansion,” she concluded.

Dr Paul Aho predicted pork production will drop 15 percent worldwide in 2019. “From there pork will increase 5 percent per year for four years,” he said, “and then continue increasing at a more modest 2 percent average per year. Meanwhile, poultry will increase 3 percent per year for three years (spurred in part by a shortage of pork) before dropping down to an average increase of 2 percent per year,” he predicted.

“Poultry will surpass pork in production this year and will never relinquish the crown by my reckoning,” Aho said.

Sumner concluded: “With China having lost 30 percent of its herd to ASF and with it producing 50 percent of the global supply, there is no doubt that poultry is now king of the meat proteins worldwide.”

IPC members eyed the emerging opportunities and consumer and trade issues around the globe, as they continued to work toward consensus to respond proactively on issues like food safety and antimicrobial resistance, sustainability and the environment and animal health and welfare.

Canada’s Robin Horel, executive sponsor of the working group on communications and marketing, said IPC is leading the way on consumer and other issues, including working to produce defined positions, aspirations and direction to align the industry globally.

“IPC is leading on these issues by focusing on pre-competitive issues where we can share best practices and where we can have a direct impact through engagement and communication,” he said.

Addressing global barriers to trade is another IPC goal. “The ultimate evidence of our success will be fewer trade barriers and a safer food supply,” Sumner said.

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