Daily US grain report: market bulls have confidence heading into holiday season

US grain futures prices were firmer overnight and bulls have some momentum on their side to start the holiday-shortened trading week.
calendar icon 23 December 2019
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Corn was up around 1/2 cent, soybeans up around 2 cents and wheat up around 1 cent.

Grain traders remain upbeat heading into the end of the year, as the US-China trade war appears to be winding down. China over the weekend announced plans on January 1 to cut import tariffs on hundreds of products from all of its trading partners. Rhetoric from government officials on both sides has been positive the past couple weeks.

Pause recently is not bearish but bulls need to show fresh power soon or risk sideways and choppy trading in the weeks ahead
Pause recently is not bearish but bulls need to show fresh power soon or risk sideways and choppy trading in the weeks ahead

© Jim Wyckoff

Focus of grain traders in the coming weeks will be on daily and weekly export sales announcements from USDA, specifically for stepped-up purchases from China.

The latest commitment of traders report from the CFTC shows the big speculative “fund” traders still significantly short the corn and soybean futures markets, which is actually bullish as those funds will likely have to cover their losing positions if prices move higher from here. The CFTC data showed the funds are moderately long wheat futures, which gets a neutral reading but does show that speculators are becoming more interested in the long side of the grain futures markets.

Bulls have firm advantage as price uptrend line in place; path of least resistance is sideways-higher in near term
Bulls have firm advantage as price uptrend line in place; path of least resistance is sideways-higher in near term

© Jim Wyckoff

With grain prices pushing to multi-week highs just recently, their near-term technical postures have turned more bullish--especially for wheat and soybeans.

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