Computer modelling predicts next PED outbreaks

The Executive Director of the Swine Health Information Center reports it's now possible to use the swine health information being provided voluntarily by swine producers to predict when a farm can be expected to break with PED.
calendar icon 20 January 2020
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The Swine Health Information Center's January 2020 Newsletter includes a summary of the center's 2019 results.

Speaking to Farmscape, Dr Paul Sundberg, the Executive Director of the Swine Health Information Center, says, in the area of preparedness, the use of computer modelling is now providing a new way to look at data analysis.

"We're now able to use a computer learning process, and now the beta test, of being able to predict two weeks in advance when a farm is at risk and will be breaking with PED [porcine epidemic diarrhoea].

"Using the information available from the sources of producers that are willing to share information, our models have been able to go back in time and successfully predict when a farm would break and now, we're using that as a way to predict.

"And we'll be looking forward in real time now to model and test out the process for being able to predict when a farm is going to break with PED in order to enable communication and action on the farm to mitigate that outbreak.

"I think that's a significant step that we're to the show now that the shared data that producers are willing to offer up can be used to predict when they're going to have a disease outbreak and that way, they can better make sure that they're prepared and perhaps prevent it."

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