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China sets 95% self-sufficiency target for pig meat

23 October 2020, at 1:00am

A document recently released by the Chinese Government highlights their ambitions for food security in livestock sectors, writes Felicity Rusk, livestock analyst with AHDB.

The nation is now aiming to produce 95% of its pig meat demand domestically, achieved through a rapid rebuilding of its pig herd following the ASF epidemic. However, no timeframe was proposed for achieving this target.

While 95% may sound like an ambitious target, China prior to the ASF outbreak averaged at around 99% self-sufficiency for pig meat. This year, even with production expecting to fall by another 8.3% on the year due to ASF, self-sufficiency is estimated at 93%. This is because OECD-FAO also expect consumption of pig meat to fall this year by around 6.4%.

As such, according to the forecasts from the OECD-FAO Agricultural outlook (2020-29), China should reach is self-sufficiency target next year. The forecast assumes a 6.5% increase in production, with a, more modest, 4.6% uplift in consumption. However, these increases do assume that there will be no further waves of ASF among the pig herd.